Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising: match statistics

Orange County SC are slight favorites: they have won 36% of their home matches and average 1.07 goals, while Phoenix Rising win just 14% of their away games and average 0.93 goals. The hosts also register slightly more shots on target at home than the visitors do away — 2.79 compared with 2.57 per match. Both defenses allow opponents chances, although Phoenix concede an average of 1.57 goals away from home, compared with 1.43 for Orange County at home; expected goals suggest, however, that the visitors give up chances of slightly lower quality, at 1.37 versus 1.58 xG. Recent form favors Phoenix, who have won 2 of their last 5 matches and scored 7 goals, while Orange County have won once and scored just 3. The hosts’ poor form limits confidence in the pick, but Phoenix’s significantly weaker away results tip the balance in Orange County’s favor.

The seasonal BTTS rate supports goals from both teams: 71% in Orange County SC matches and 57% in Phoenix Rising matches, compared with the league average of 54%. The hosts score an average of 1.86 goals and post an xG of 1.75, while the visitors concede 1.57 goals per match, giving Orange County a clear chance to score. Phoenix averages just 0.93 goals per match, but has scored an average of 1.4 goals across its last five games, while Orange County has conceded as many as 2.4. Phoenix also recorded BTTS in 80% of its last five matches, although the hosts’ recent dip in attack, averaging 0.6 goals, tempers confidence in the prediction. Overall, the threat at both ends suggests each team is more likely to score than at least one side failing to find the net.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: this threshold was reached in 93% of Orange County matches and 86% of Phoenix matches. The hosts score an average of 1.86 goals, while the visitors concede 1.57, pointing to a significant contribution from Orange County to the total. In their last five matches, both teams have conceded heavily—2.4 and 2.2 goals per game, respectively—so even the hosts’ recent dip in finishing does not rule out at least two goals. The 2.5 line is less reliable, as it was surpassed in 64% of Orange County matches but only 50% of Phoenix matches; therefore, Over 1.5 goals remains the safer pick.

The strongest single scenario is Orange County SC leading at the break and winning after 90 minutes: the hosts were ahead at half-time in 43% of matches, while Phoenix Rising were trailing at that point in 43%. Across the season, Orange County average 1.86 goals per match compared with Phoenix’s 0.93, and also record 5.79 shots on target against their opponents’ 2.57, supporting the likelihood of them holding on to any potential lead. The hosts’ average of 0.93 goals scored before the break, against 0.93 goals conceded by the visitors over the same period, also points to an early Orange County lead. However, recent form tempers this pick: Orange County have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and scored just 0.2 goals before half-time in those games, while Phoenix have won 2 of their last 5. Therefore, 1/1 remains the most likely individual HT/FT outcome, but a draw at half-time and scenarios favouring the visitors still account for a meaningful share of the forecast.