Orijent 1919 vs Dubrava Zagreb: match statistics

Orijent 1919 are slight favorites thanks to their home record: they have won 2 of 3 matches there, remain unbeaten and have conceded just 0.33 goals per game on average. Dubrava Zagreb have won 25% of their away matches, scoring an average of 0.75 goals compared with the hosts’ 1.67 goals per home game. The quality of chances also favors Orijent: their home xG stands at 1.12, while Dubrava have allowed opponents chances worth 1.53 xG on the road. However, the visitors have been more solid recently, taking 8 points and conceding 3 goals in five matches, compared with the hosts’ 5 points and 7 goals conceded. Dubrava’s improvement, along with draws in half of their away matches, makes a share of the points a significant possibility.

BTTS - No is more likely, meaning at least one team will fail to score: in their last 5 matches, both teams averaged just 0.8 goals each, and matches with goals scored by both sides accounted for 40%. Dubrava kept a clean sheet in 50% of its matches and conceded an average of 0.6 goals in its last 5, limiting Orijent’s chances of scoring. The visitors also lack a potent attack: they average 0.75 goals per match with an xG of 0.98 and failed to score in 25% of their matches. A counter-indicator is Orijent’s failure to keep clean sheets and the fact that 67% of its matches featured goals from both teams, so the edge for BTTS - No remains slight.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been breached in matches involving either Orijent or Dubrava, although the samples cover only 3 and 4 games, respectively. Over their last 5 matches, Orijent averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Dubrava averaged 0.8 scored and just 0.6 conceded. Their average attacking xG—0.96 for the home side and 0.98 for the visitors—also points away from a high-scoring game. Some caution is warranted, as Orijent conceded an average of 1.33 goals per game this season, but Dubrava kept a clean sheet in 50% of its matches. With a projected total of 2.04 goals, Under 3.5 offers a clearer signal than the riskier Under 2.5.

A draw at half-time and at full-time appears to be the most likely outcome, although it holds only a slight edge over an away win. In their last five matches, both teams averaged 0.8 goals per game; Orijent failed to score before the break in four of those five matches, while Dubrava did so in three. The visitors were level at half-time in two of their last five matches, and draws accounted for half of their games over the full season. The low number of goals after the break also points towards the score remaining level: Dubrava’s last five matches produced an average of just 0.4 goals in the second half, and their opponents failed to score in that period on every occasion. However, Dubrava have averaged 1.6 points per game across their last five appearances, compared with Orijent’s 1.0, so a draw at half-time followed by an away win remains a close alternative.