Orlando City vs Chicago Fire: match statistics

Chicago Fire come into the match in significantly better form, having won 4 of their last 5 games and scored 10 goals in the process, while Orlando City have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, scoring 8 goals. The visitors also look considerably stronger defensively over the course of the season: they have conceded 23 goals in 17 matches, compared with Orlando’s 47 in 18. The hosts’ advantage, however, is home-field advantage, where they win 50% of their matches and score an average of 1.88 goals, compared with Chicago’s 1.75 goals away from home. Orlando do allow opponents chances worth an average xG of 1.94, clearly above the 1.59 recorded by Chicago away from home, which increases the in-form visitors’ chances of taking control of the match. Both teams concede an average of 1.63 goals at home and away respectively, so an open game should be expected, although current form gives Chicago a slight edge.

BTTS - Yes is supported by the high efficiency of both attacks: Orlando City score an average of 2.00 goals at home, while Chicago Fire average 1.75 goals away. Chicago concede an average of 1.63 goals per match, while Orlando generate 1.85 xG at home and register 5.56 shots on target, making a home goal highly likely. The visitors also have strong arguments to score, as Orlando concede an average of 1.11 goals, while their average goals conceded has risen to 1.60 over their last five matches, with 1.64 xG against. Both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches, while across the season Chicago’s rate stands at 75%, compared with 56% for Orlando and a league average of 61%. Additionally, Chicago have scored 10 goals in their last five appearances, while Orlando have conceded 8 during that period, further strengthening the scenario of a goal for each side.

Both teams have very high season rates of matches featuring at least 2 goals: 78% for Orlando City and 88% for Chicago Fire. Orlando creates chances worth an average of 1.85 xG per match, while Chicago allows opponents 1.59 xG, supporting the forecast of at least one or two goals for the hosts. The visitors score an average of 1.75 goals, while Orlando concedes 1.11 goals per match, so their contribution to the total is also realistic. In their last 5 matches, both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score in 80% of cases, with their combined average of goals scored standing at 3.6 per match. However, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as it combines a high level of agreement across the season data with an expected total of 2.98 goals and leaves a clear safety margin.

Orlando City has a clearly stronger home profile: they average 2.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded at home, while Chicago Fire allow opponents an average of 1.63 goals per away match. Orlando’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created, with an average xG of 1.85 compared with Chicago’s 1.36, while their shots on target average 5.56 versus 4.63 for the visitors. The hosts led at the break in 3 of 9 matches, but the score was level after 45 minutes in 5 of 9, making a draw at half-time followed by an Orlando win a close alternative. After the break, Orlando score an average of 1.22 goals, while Chicago concede 0.75 away goals, further strengthening the hosts’ chances of settling the match in their favor. However, Chicago are on a strong run of four consecutive victories and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, meaning the 1/1 pick holds only a moderate, rather than dominant, edge over the X/1 variant.