Orlando City vs Real Salt Lake: match statistics

Orlando City have a clearly stronger home profile: they win 44% of their home matches, while Real Salt Lake win just 11% of their away games and lose as many as 56%. The hosts average 1.78 goals per match in front of their home crowd, compared with 1.22 goals scored by the visitors away from home, and they also register slightly more shots on target (4.89 to 4.00). However, Real Salt Lake arrive on a strong five-match unbeaten run, having scored 10 goals and conceded just 3, meaning they can pose a genuine threat to an Orlando defense that concedes an average of 1.56 goals at home. The quality of chances also points to an open game, as Orlando allow opponents an average xG of 1.86, while Real Salt Lake record an away xGA of 1.66. The hosts’ advantage in home results and attacking efficiency gives them a slight edge, although a draw remains a highly realistic scenario.

The BTTS signal is clear, as both teams have recorded this scenario frequently this season: Orlando City in 67% of matches and Real Salt Lake in as many as 89%, compared with the league average of 62%. Orlando score an average of 2.11 goals at home, while Real Salt Lake concede an average of 1.89 goals away, strongly supporting a goal from the home side. The visitors are not without a chance of scoring, however: they have averaged 2.0 goals in their last five matches, while Orlando conceded 1.8 goals per game during this period. In addition, Orlando recorded BTTS in each of their last five matches, and both teams have been creating quality chances, with an average xG of 1.55 for the hosts and 1.46 for the visitors in this run. The main risk to the pick is Real Salt Lake's strong recent defensive record, having conceded only 3 goals in five matches. However, their season-long lack of away clean sheets supports the expectation that Orlando will score.

Orlando City score an average of 2.11 goals per match, while Real Salt Lake concede an average of 1.89, clearly supporting at least one goal for the home side. The hosts also generate 1.90 xG and 7.22 shots on target per game, while the visitors’ xG conceded stands at 1.66. The 1.5-goal line has been covered in 100% of Orlando’s matches and 89% of Real Salt Lake’s, making it the strongest signal in the data. Orlando’s last five matches produced an average of 3.4 total goals, with both teams scoring an average of 1.6 and 2.0 goals, respectively. Over 2.5 also has solid grounds, but with a projected 3.00 goals, Over 1.5 remains the safer and most likely option.

Orlando City have a clear advantage in their home results: they have won 78% of their matches, scoring an average of 2.11 goals and conceding just 1.00, while Real Salt Lake have won only 11% of their away games and conceded 1.89 goals on average. The hosts tend to start matches well, having led at the break in 44% of their games, scoring an average of 1.11 goals before half-time and allowing opponents just 0.33. Real Salt Lake score only 0.78 goals in the first halves and concede the same number, while after the break their scoring average drops to 0.44, with 1.11 goals conceded. The visitors’ recent form is solid, however—they are unbeaten in their last five matches and have conceded an average of just 0.6 goals—so the half-time draw remains a significant alternative. Nevertheless, Orlando’s long-term advantage primarily points towards the hosts leading at the break and securing a full-time victory, i.e. the 1/1 HT/FT outcome.