Orléans vs Quevilly Rouen: match statistics

Orléans holds a clear statistical advantage this season: 6th vs 14th for Quevilly, 13 wins vs 6 for the visitors and a superior goal record of 38–30. At home Orléans averages 12.93 shots and 5.57 on target per match with an average xG of 1.64, while Quevilly away records 8.86 shots, 3.57 on target and xG 1.08, indicating higher quality of chance creation by the hosts. Defensively the hosts also outperform — Orléans concedes 1.29 goals on average in home matches and only 3 goals in the last 5 games, whereas Quevilly concedes 1.64 goals away and 8 goals in their last 5. Additionally Orléans rarely finishes matches goalless (only 7% of home games without a goal vs 36% of the visitors’ away games) and shows more consistent form: 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 5 (average 1.8 points per game) compared to Quevilly’s 2–1–2 record (average 1.4 points per game). Considering the edge in shots, xG and the lower tendency to fail to score, I project a home win; probabilities estimated at approximately 62% for Orléans, 22% for a draw and 16% for Quevilly.

Statistics point to a BTTS - Yes scenario: Orléans has a home BTTS rate of 64%, Quevilly Rouen an away rate of 50%, league average 53%. Both teams average scored goals this season are 1.00 (Orléans) and 1.14 (Quevilly) while conceding 1.36 and 1.64 respectively, indicating vulnerability to conceding. In the last 5 matches Orléans averages 1.2 scored and 0.6 conceded (6 for, 3 against), whereas Quevilly averages 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded (8 and 8), showing the visitors possess sufficient offensive potential to score. Additionally Orléans recently has xG_for 1.96 (versus season 0.96), Quevilly concedes seasonally xG_against 1.43 and averages 3.57 shots on target per match, and clean sheets are rare (14% for hosts, 21% for visitors). Considering 64% BTTS at home, 50% away, higher average goals conceded 1.36 and 1.64, plus recent xG and shot numbers, I favor the 'Yes' variant with a 65% vs 35% edge for 'No'.

I estimate about 1.20 goals for Orléans and 1.20 for Quevilly (calculated as (xG_for_home 0.96 + xG_against_away 1.43)/2 ≈1.20 and (xG_for_away 1.08 + xG_against_home 1.31)/2 ≈1.20), total ≈2.40. Seasonally both teams have 71% of matches over 1.5 goals (seasonOver15 71%/71%), and only 29% under, which combined with the projected 2.40 goals strongly supports Over 1.5. The 2.5 line gives mixed signals: Orléans Over 2.5 in 50% of matches, Quevilly in 57% (average ≈53%), but the projected total 2.40 is slightly below the 2.5 threshold, so Over 2.5 is moderately likely. Over 3.5 looks unlikely — seasonally Over 3.5 occurs only 21% of the time for both teams, so Under 3.5 is a clear favorite. Additionally, the high share of matches with goals (Over 0.5: Orléans 86%, Quevilly 93%) and BTTS 64%/50% increase the probability of more than 1.5 goals; therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the best line.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X). Orléans were drawing at the break in 43% of home matches, while Quevilly drew at the break in 29% of away games; first-half goals average 1.21 for the hosts versus 1.71 for the visitors, suggesting an even, often inconclusive first half. A draw at full-time looks quite natural because Orléans have won only 14% of home matches with 50% ending level, and the visitors have moderate away effectiveness (29% wins), so a decisive victory is not the dominant scenario. Quevilly have a slightly higher xG (1.08 versus the hosts’ 0.96) and more goals at half-time this season (24 vs 17), which makes X/2 a realistic alternative, but that edge does not outweigh the frequent draws. Considering leads at the break of 21% for the hosts versus 29% for the visitors and the last five matches (visitors 8 half-time goals vs hosts 3), I prioritize X/X, with secondary potential for a visitor turnaround after the break.