Orléans vs Versailles: match statistics

Orléans sit higher in the table, but have lost both of their home matches so far, scoring an average of just 0.5 goals and keeping no clean sheets. Versailles have also been inconsistent away from home, but they average 1.67 goals per match with an 18% shot conversion rate, while the hosts convert just 6% of their attempts. The visitors concede as many as 2.67 goals away from home; however, Orléans have failed to score in 50% of their home fixtures, limiting the hosts’ chances of exploiting this weakness. The quality of chances created is relatively even, but Versailles’ away xG stands at 0.98 compared with Orléans’ 1.18 xG at home, while the visitors’ advantage is reinforced by significantly better actual goal output. Both teams have won 2 of their last 5 matches, but Orléans’ home record and very low conversion rate point to a slight preference for Versailles.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily supported by Orléans’ very poor finishing at home: the hosts score an average of just 0.50 goals, and they failed to score in 50% of their matches. Orléans kept a clean sheet in 50% of home games, while the team’s current BTTS rate at home stands at 0%. Versailles are more dangerous offensively, averaging 1.67 goals away from home, but their xG is only 0.98, and both teams scored in just 40% of their last five matches. Orléans’ average xG of 1.22 and 4 shots on target per game give the hosts a chance to score against a visiting defense conceding 2.67 goals, but their low historical goal output limits the credibility of a scenario in which both sides find the net. Additionally, the league’s BTTS rate is just 36%, making a match in which at least one team fails to score the more likely outcome.

The 2.38-goal projection is based on the xG comparison: Orléans average 1.22 xG, while Versailles concede 1.18, whereas the visitors generate 0.98 xG against 1.25 xG conceded by the hosts. Orléans have conceded just 0.8 goals per game over their last 5 matches and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games so far, limiting Versailles’ attacking potential. The hosts average only 0.5 goals scored per game this season and have not scored more than once in any match, despite the visitors’ defense conceding as many as 2.67 goals on average. Versailles do have 100% of their matches finishing Over 2.5 goals, but Orléans have recorded no game above 3.5 goals, while the league averages just 2.33 goals. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5 goals: at least four goals would be required, which remains the less likely scenario given the projected total of 2.38.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by an Orléans win, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, averaging just 0.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded in the first half. Versailles also tend to start cautiously: a half-time draw occurred in 40% of their recent matches, although the visitors averaged 0.8 goals before the break. After half-time, the advantage shifts to Orléans, who averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded across their last five matches, while Versailles scored just 0.4 and allowed opponents 1.6 goals on average. The visitors’ defense has been particularly unreliable over their last five league games, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per match compared with 0.8 for the hosts. Another supporting factor is the higher quality of Orléans’ chances, with an average xG of 1.22 compared with Versailles’ 0.98, favouring a home turnaround after the break.