Pachuca vs Puebla: match statistics

Pachuca are coming off a poor run, with just 1 win and 4 defeats in their last five matches, but Puebla have been even worse: they have picked up only 1 point during that period and conceded as many as 14 goals. At home, the hosts average 54% possession and register 13 shots per match, while the visitors average just 34% possession. Pachuca create slightly better-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.31 compared with Puebla’s 1.26, although both teams allow their opponents plenty of opportunities, conceding 1.83 and 1.79 xG respectively. Puebla are more accurate away from home, recording 4.5 shots on target per match compared with Pachuca’s 2, but their recent defensive form significantly undermines their credibility. Home advantage and the visitors’ weaker results trend point towards a narrow Pachuca victory.

The case for goals from both sides is strengthened by their defensive form: Pachuca have conceded an average of 1.6 goals in their last 5 matches, while Puebla have conceded as many as 2.8, with both teams showing limited control over their opponents during this period. BTTS - Yes occurred in 60% of Pachuca’s last five matches and in 80% of Puebla’s games, which is higher than the league average of 59%. Pachuca have recently created chances worth 1.86 xG per match, while Puebla average 4.5 shots on target and have a season xG of 1.26, giving the visitors solid grounds to score. In addition, the hosts have yet to keep a clean sheet this season, while Puebla have scored in every match, making a goal for each team more likely than a BTTS - No outcome, where at least one team fails to score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Pachuca have recorded at least 2 goals in 100% of their matches to date, while Puebla have done so in 50% of games. The teams’ last five outings point to an open-game profile: Pachuca’s matches produced an average of 2.4 goals, while Puebla’s averaged as many as 4.0 goals. The visitors’ defensive weakness is particularly significant, having conceded 14 goals in their last five matches, or 2.8 per game, with an average xG against them of 1.86. Pachuca have recently created chances worth 1.86 xG per match, while the hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet in any game, which also supports the prospect of a Puebla goal. The 2.5 line remains viable, as it was covered by Pachuca in 60% and by Puebla in 80% of their last five matches; however, Over 1.5 offers a clearly safer edge.

Pachuca have made very poor starts to their matches: in their last five games, they were trailing at half-time in 60% of cases, scoring just 0.4 goals before the break and conceding 1.0. Puebla have also failed to impress in terms of results, but they average 0.8 goals in the first halves, while Pachuca’s defense allows opponents a high xG of 2.63. After the break, however, the advantage should shift to the hosts, as Pachuca have averaged 1.4 points across their last five second halves, compared with just 0.4 for Puebla, who have not won any of them. The visitors have also conceded an average of 2.8 goals per match in their recent run, so the most likely HT/FT scenario is Puebla leading at the break before Pachuca completes the turnaround after half-time.