Pachuca vs Querétaro: match statistics

Pachuca appears to be the favorite: the home side has 1 win this season versus 0 for Querétaro, and in the last 5 matches Pachuca has scored 7 goals with a record of 4 wins and 1 loss, while Querétaro has also scored 7 goals but only 2 wins and 2 draws. In terms of points efficiency the hosts average 2.4 points per game over the last 5 fixtures, compared to the visitors’ 1.6 points per game. Defensively Pachuca looks superior: 0 goals conceded this season and only 1 conceded in the last 5 matches versus 1 conceded this season and as many as 5 conceded in Querétaro’s last five appearances. Both teams’ attacking output is comparable over the last 5 matches (7 goals each), but the hosts’ advantage in wins (4 vs 2) and higher points average indicate better quality of chances for Pachuca. Considering 2.4 vs 1.6 points and 0 vs 1 goals conceded this season as well as 1 vs 5 in the last 5 matches, I predict a Pachuca win (approx. 65%), draw 20% and Querétaro win 15%.

I choose BTTS - Yes with a probability of 65% vs 35%, because league signals and the away form favor both teams scoring. Liga MX has a 64% rate of matches with both teams scoring, and Querétaro recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 games (4/5), which is a very strong indicator. Pachuca, however, has 0% BTTS in their last 5 matches and conceded only 0.2 goals on average in those games (1 goal in 5), which weakens the BTTS scenario but does not negate it. Both teams average 1.4 goals in their last 5 matches, and Querétaro generates xG_for 1.74 versus the home side’s xG_against 1.2, meaning the visitors create more expected scoring chances. Overall the 64% league trend and the visitors’ 80% BTTS outweigh the hosts’ defensive run, so BTTS - Yes is the stronger signal.

I estimate the combined expected total at 3.17 goals (xG: Pachuca 1.43 vs Querétaro 1.74), which is effectively equal to the league average of 3.18. In the last 5 matches both teams have scored 7 goals each, with Pachuca conceding only 1 goal in those five fixtures while Querétaro conceded 5, indicating greater defensive vulnerability on Querétaro’s side. The cumulative xG of 3.17 clearly exceeds the 2.5 threshold, so I estimate the probability of Over 2.5 goals at approximately 70% and Over 1.5 at 95%. Given the highest probability and the strongest signal from the data, I recommend the Over line at 1.5 as the best choice.

Pachuca led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%), scoring on average 1.0 goal by half-time and conceding none in the first half (0.0), which strongly supports the hosts leading after 45 minutes. In those five fixtures the home side won 4 times (80% wins) and average 2.6 points gained by half-time versus 1.2 for the away side (2.6 vs 1.2), so the lead at the break often translates into a full-time victory. Pachuca posts an average home xG of 1.06 and registers on average 2.0 shots on target per match, confirming the likelihood of scoring in the first half. Querétaro led at the break in only 1 of 5 matches (20%) and were level at half-time in 3 of 5 (60%), therefore the scenario where the hosts take the lead by half-time and maintain the win until the end (HT/FT 1/1) is the strongest. On that basis I assign the highest probability to the HT/FT 1/1 outcome (42%), while also accounting for smaller but possible options of a half-time draw or a second-half turnaround.