Pachuca vs Tijuana: match statistics

Pachuca holds a clear edge in chance creation at home, averaging 17.33 shots and 4.33 shots on target per match, while Tijuana averages 11 and 2.5 respectively away from home. The hosts also post a higher xG figure, 1.75 compared with the visitors’ 1.11, while Tijuana fails to score in as many as 50% of its away matches. Pachuca’s defense is far from reliable, however, conceding an average of 2 goals at home with an xG against of 1.53, which keeps the visitors’ chances of finding the net very much alive. Recent overall form also slightly favors Pachuca: they have collected 8 points from their last five matches and scored 9 goals, while Tijuana has picked up 6 points and conceded 10 goals. Although neither team has won a match so far in its respective home or away fixtures, Pachuca’s greater attacking output should tilt the result in their favor.

Recent form supports goals at both ends: both Pachuca and Tijuana recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches. Pachuca averaged 1.8 goals during this period, while Tijuana averaged 1.4, with the visitors conceding as many as 2.0 goals per game, which clearly strengthens the home side’s prospects. However, Tijuana’s season-long attacking signal is weaker, as they have scored an average of only 1.0 goal and failed to score in 50% of matches. The visitors are backed by an improvement in chance quality across their last five appearances, with their xG rising to 1.44, while Pachuca allowed opponents an xG of 1.61. The baseline BTTS rate was only 40% for Pachuca and 50% for Tijuana, so the case for BTTS - Yes has a slight rather than decisive edge.

Pachuca score an average of 1.6 goals per home game, while Tijuana concede as many as 2.5 goals away from home, significantly strengthening the case for at least two goals. The hosts also create more chances: their average xG stands at 1.46, with 4.2 shots on target per match, compared with Tijuana’s 1.11 xG and 2.5 shots on target. In their last five matches, both teams have played open games, averaging 2.8 goals in Pachuca’s matches and 3.4 in Tijuana’s, while Over 2.5 landed in 40% and 60% of these respective runs. At the same time, Pachuca concede only 0.6 goals per home game and kept a clean sheet in 40% of their appearances, which is why the larger share of the goals projection falls to the hosts. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as it combines Pachuca’s high attacking output with Tijuana’s very weak away defense, without requiring four or more goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Pachuca win, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their 5 matches, while Tijuana were level at half-time in 50% of their games and have not led at that stage once. The opening phase could be cautious: Tijuana have yet to score before the break, whereas Pachuca average only 0.4 goals in the first half. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage increases significantly, as they score an average of 1.2 goals and concede just 0.2, while they won the second half in 80% of their matches. Pachuca have won 80% of their games this season, averaging 2.4 points per match, whereas Tijuana have no wins, earn 0.5 points and concede as many as 2.5 goals per game. The hosts’ offensive superiority is also reflected in an average of 4.2 shots on target compared with their opponents’ 2.5, as well as an xG of 1.46 versus Tijuana’s 1.11.