Pacific FC vs Supra du Québec: match statistics

I forecast a home win (1) — Pacific FC average 1.0 goal per home match with an average xG of 1.13 and 13 shots per game, while Supra du Québec show zeroes in away stats (0 xG, 0 shots, 0 goals), indicating missing data or no away matches played. However, the hosts defend poorly: on average 2.0 goals conceded per home game and as many as 15 goals conceded in the last 5 matches, with form lddll and an average of 0.4 points per game in that period. Pacific’s attack can still deliver in big games — 7 goals in the last 5 matches with a home shot conversion of 8% and an average of 1.0 shots on target per game — this is the main advantage versus Supra’s lack of data. Considering home advantage, a far higher shot volume (13 vs 0) and positive xG for the hosts (1.13 vs 0), I give Pacific the better chances, although their susceptibility to conceding makes a draw a realistic outcome. Final probabilities: 60% home, 25% draw, 15% away.

Pacific FC has a BTTS rate of 80% in the last 5 matches, scoring on average 1.4 goals and conceding 3.0 goals per match (7 scored and 15 conceded in 5 matches). Their latest xG is 1.13 for and 1.85 xG against, confirming that this team’s matches generate goalscoring opportunities for both sides. By contrast the league has a 33% BTTS and 67% matches with a clean sheet expected, lowering the overall BTTS expectation. Supra du Québec has no available seasonal or last-5 data (all values 0), which increases uncertainty, but the dominant home signal — 80% BTTS and on average 3.0 goals conceded — suggests a higher probability of both teams scoring. Based on this I pick BTTS - Yes with a probability of 70% versus 30% for No.

Pacific FC have scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches (avg. 1.4 per game) and conceded 15 goals (avg. 3.0 per game), totalling 22 goals or an average of 4.4 goals per match. Their xG over the last 5 matches is 1.13, while xG against is 1.85, implying expected goals of 1.13 (home) and 1.85 (away) for a combined value of 2.98. A Poisson model with λ=2.98 yields approximately an 80% probability for Over 1.5 goals, ~57% for Over 2.5, and ~35% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, Pacific have recorded 100% Over 2.5 matches in their last 5 fixtures and 80% BTTS rate, which reinforces the expectation of more goals; however, lack of data for Supra du Québec increases uncertainty and reduces conviction for higher lines. Therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal given expected goals of 1.13 vs 1.85 (total 2.98).

Pacific FC have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per home match over the last five; in the first half they average 0.6 scored and 1.4 conceded (2.0 total goals by half-time). The hosts were trailing at the break in 3 of 5 matches (60%), and across those five home games they recorded no wins (0%), with 2 draws (40%) and 3 losses (60%). In 5 of 5 matches there was at least one goal by half-time (100%), and in 4 of 5 (80%) the first half exceeded 1.5 goals, indicating early strikes and opponents holding the lead before the break. On that basis the most probable scenario is HT=away lead and FT=away win (2/2): based on a 60% chance Pacific are behind at half-time and an assumed 70% probability that the visitors maintain the lead to full-time, I assign 42% to 2/2. Alternatives are 2/X at 18% and 1/X at 12% as less likely, while home-win scenarios are rated 0% due to the absence of victories in the last five matches; therefore the recommendation is '2/2'.