Paços de Ferreira vs CD Trofense: match statistics

Paços de Ferreira have a clear edge in recent results, taking 8 points from 5 matches, compared with just 2 for CD Trofense, who have yet to record a win. The visitors have also failed to win any away games, averaging 0.5 goals on the road and drawing a blank in 75% of those matches. At home, Paços create chances worth an average of 1.37 xG, compared with Trofense’s 0.74 xG away from home, and average 4.25 shots on target against their opponents’ 1.5. Although Paços score just 0.75 goals per home match, the visitors’ defense concedes an average of 2 goals away, which points to a home win. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as Paços have won only 25% of their home matches so far.

BTTS has occurred in only 25% of matches involving either team so far, and each has averaged just 0.5 goals per game. A goal from CD Trofense looks particularly unlikely: the visitors have failed to score in 75% of their matches, average 1.5 shots on target, and have an xG of 0.74. Paços de Ferreira have also been limited in front of goal, failing to score in 50% of their matches, although the visitors’ average of 2 goals conceded increases the hosts’ chances of finding the net. BTTS landed in 60% of the hosts’ last five appearances, compared with 40% for the visitors, so it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score (BTTS - No).

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: the hosts average 0.5 goals at home, while the visitors average 0.5 away, limiting both teams’ attacking potential. Over their last five matches, Paços de Ferreira averaged 1.2 goals scored, while CD Trofense averaged 0.6, although the visitors conceded as many as 2.4 goals per match. This defensive weakness gives the hosts a better chance of scoring, but the teams’ average xG figures—1.00 and 0.74, respectively—do not point to a particularly high goal total. Under 3.5 goals landed in 75% of the hosts’ matches and 50% of the visitors’ matches, making this line a clearer option than the riskier Under 2.5 goals.

The strongest signal is Paços de Ferreira’s advantage over their last five matches: the hosts averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while CD Trofense scored 0.6 and conceded 2.4. The hosts led at the break in 2 of those 5 matches, while the visitors were trailing at half-time in 3, which points to Paços taking the lead in the first half. Their ability to maintain that advantage is supported by their second-half form: the hosts have not lost a single second half in their last five matches, while the visitors have lost 4 of 5. However, the 1/1 HT/FT pick is not a certainty, as Paços have yet to lead at the break in their previous home matches; a half-time draw followed by a home win therefore remains a significant alternative.