Paksi SE vs Honvéd: match statistics

Paksi SE have a clear home advantage: they have won 100% of their matches there so far, scoring an average of 4 goals per game while conceding 2. The hosts also create more high-quality chances, with an average home xG of 2.06 compared to Honvéd’s 1.56 away from home, while they also average 7 shots on target to their opponents’ 4. Honvéd remain unbeaten on the road, but both of their away matches ended in draws, and the team scores just 1 goal per game in those fixtures. Paksi’s form over their last five matches has been poor, with 3 defeats and 13 goals conceded, which increases the visitors’ chances of finding the net. Despite the hosts’ defensive issues, their significantly higher conversion rate in front of goal—25% compared to Honvéd’s 8%—supports a narrow Paksi SE victory.

The signal for both teams to score is strong: in the current competition, both Paksi SE and Honvéd have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, and neither team has kept a clean sheet. In their last five matches, this rate stands at 100% for the home side and 80% for the visitors, with an average of 2.0 and 1.6 goals scored, respectively. The defenses regularly allow opponents to create chances, as Paksi SE have conceded an average of 2.6 goals in their last five appearances, while Honvéd have conceded 1.8. Their attacking potential is also supported by the xG figures: 1.49 for the home side and 1.32 for the visitors, while Paksi SE allow opponents an average of 1.84 xG. Although the league average for BTTS is only 57%, the current data for both teams clearly provides stronger support for the scenario in which each side scores at least one goal. Therefore, BTTS - No is not the expected outcome: it would mean that at least one team fails to score, not automatically a 0-0 draw or that neither team scores.

The match profile favors goals: Paksi have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.6 conceded in their last five matches, while Honvéd have averaged 1.6 and 1.8, respectively. Both teams have scored and conceded in 100% of their matches so far this season, significantly reducing the likelihood of a tight match. Offensive xG stands at 1.45 for the home side and 1.56 for the visitors, while their average xG conceded is 1.27 and 1.36, respectively, suggesting that both teams should create chances. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Paksi’s last five matches and in 60% of Honvéd’s, while the league average of 3.75 goals further supports an open-game scenario. However, the strongest pick remains Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.21 goals gives this line by far the greatest margin of safety.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and at the final whistle, as Honvéd have drawn 60% of their last five matches, with 60% of those also level at the break. Paksi also frequently fail to produce a decisive first half, recording a half-time draw in 50% of their recent matches, although their first-45-minute record is poor: they score an average of 1.25 goals and concede 1.75. The teams’ attacking potential is comparable, as reflected by an xG of 1.45 for Paksi and 1.56 for Honvéd, with both averaging 12 shots per match. The hosts have lost 60% of their last five matches, but Honvéd have won only 20%, so the visitors’ advantage is not sufficient to rate the HT/FT draw/away win scenario above a full-time draw.