Palmeiras vs Chapecoense: match statistics

Palmeiras is the clear favorite: at home they win 75% of matches (record 11 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss) and average 1.88 goals scored with 0.75 conceded per game. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 12 goals and average 2.0 points per game, while Chapecoense in the same period has 7 goals and only 0.8 points per game. The visitors sit 20th, have 0% wins and 71% losses away, score 0.57 goals and concede 1.71 goals on the road, and in 43% of away matches failed to score. The quality gap in chances is clear: Palmeiras average 15.63 shots and 4.38 on target at home with xG 1.6, while Chapecoense away manage only 8.43 shots, 2 on target and xG 0.87, which together with the efficiency advantage justifies the favorite rating.

Palmeiras has a season BTTS rate of 78% versus 57% for Chapecoense and exceeds the league BTTS average of 59%, indicating home matches frequently finish Goal/Goal. Palmeiras generates 1.6 xG per match with an average of 16 shots and 4.56 shots on target, while Chapecoense concedes 2.32 xG and manages only 2.0 shots on target per match — this points to significant offensive pressure from the hosts and defensive vulnerabilities from the visitors. At the same time Chapecoense have recorded 80% BTTS in their last 5 matches and average 1.4 goals, while Palmeiras had 60% BTTS and averaged 2.4 goals in that period, meaning the visitors, despite a weaker season average of 0.57 goals, still find the net. Additionally Chapecoense have conceded 32 goals this season versus 13 by Palmeiras and have no away clean sheets (0%), whereas Palmeiras have 11% home clean sheets, which further increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. On this basis I recommend BTTS - Yes as the strongest signal, assigning it a 78% probability versus 22% for No.

The combination of xG and defensive metrics points to a match with multiple opportunities: Palmeiras xG is 1.6, while average xG conceded against Chapecoense is 2.32, which in the model yields about 1.96 goals for the home side; conversely Chapecoense xG 0.87 versus Palmeiras defense 1.58 gives about 1.23 for the visitors, totaling ~3.19 goals. Palmeiras averages 16.0 shots and 4.56 on target with a conversion rate of 9.0%, while Chapecoense averages 8.43 shots, 2.0 on target and 7.0% — this confirms higher scoring potential for the hosts. In the last 5 matches Palmeiras scored 2.4 and conceded 0.8 on average, and Chapecoense scored 1.4 and conceded 1.6; both sides recently featured high-scoring games, roughly 3.1 goals per match. Seasonal percentages show the >1.5 line is hit very frequently: 89% of Palmeiras matches were over 1.5 goals, and 100% for Chapecoense, therefore I rate Over 1.5 at 95%. Over 2.5 looks moderately strong (last 5 matches for both teams around 60% and seasonally 67% for Palmeiras), so I give 62% for Over 2.5; Over 3.5 is less certain (estimate 36%), thus the best play is Over 1.5.

Based on the provided data I back 1/1 (Palmeiras leading at the break and winning) because in the last 5 matches the home side led at the break in 60% of cases (3/5) while Chapecoense did so in only 20% (1/5). Palmeiras shows a clear offensive advantage: average xG for the home team is 1.60 vs 0.87 for the away team, average shots 16.0 vs 8.43 and 4.56 shots on target vs 2.0, translating into more goal-scoring opportunities. At half-time the home side scores on average 0.67 goals (scoredAVGHT_home=0.67) while the away side averages 0.0 (scoredAVGHT_away=0.0), and over the last 5 matches Palmeiras had 1.6 first-half goals vs 0.8 for Chapecoense, so a first-half lead is likely. Full-match form also favors the hosts: in the last 5 fixtures Palmeiras won 60% (3/5) vs 20% for Chapecoense, and Chapecoense concedes on average 2.32 xG against (xg_against_avg_away=2.32), which increases the chance the lead will be maintained to full-time. Therefore I assign 40% to 1/1 and 22% to X/1 as the main scenarios, allocating the remainder to less likely outcomes (including 13% to X/X and a low probability of the away side leading at the break).