Paphos vs AEK Larnaca: match statistics
Paphos presents impressive home form with 88% of matches won and only 13% lost, making them a very difficult rival at their own stadium. The hosts have a better average of goals scored in home matches (2.25) and higher shot conversion efficiency (19% vs 15%), while also dominating possession (60% vs 56%). AEK Larnaca, despite solid away form (56% wins), lost their last away match and shows a higher percentage of games without scoring on the road (22% vs 13% for Paphos at home). The difference in goal difference also speaks in favor of the hosts (+15 in home matches vs +9 for the guests on the road). Considering all these factors, Paphos is predicted as the slight favorite, although AEK Larnaca has the potential to put up stiff resistance, which increases the chance of a draw.
Paphos vs AEK Larnaca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Paphos play AEK Larnaca in First Division (Cyprus). The match date is 25 January 2026 at 18:00. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Paphos: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. AEK Larnaca: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Paphos scores 1.83 and concedes 1.06 goals per match. AEK Larnaca scores 1.72 and concedes 0.92. League average: 2.64 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Paphos 47%, AEK Larnaca 53%. Over 2.5: Paphos 50%, AEK Larnaca 42%. League level: BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Paphos has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.47. Paphos: 11.6 shots per match, AEK Larnaca: 11.5.
Match halves
Paphos: half-time lead 47%, second-half goals 0.97. AEK Larnaca: half-time lead 53%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Paphos: 76-90+ (25 goals). AEK Larnaca: 76-90+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First Division: 2.64 goals per match, BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
3 H2H matches: 1-2-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Paphos presents impressive home form with 88% of matches won and only 13% lost, making them a very difficult rival at their own stadium. The hosts have a better average of goals scored in home matches (2.25) and higher shot conversion efficiency (19% vs 15%), while also dominating possession (60% vs 56%). AEK Larnaca, despite solid away form (56% wins), lost their last away match and shows a higher percentage of games without scoring on the road (22% vs 13% for Paphos at home). The difference in goal difference also speaks in favor of the hosts (+15 in home matches vs +9 for the guests on the road). Considering all these factors, Paphos is predicted as the slight favorite, although AEK Larnaca has the potential to put up stiff resistance, which increases the chance of a draw.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Paphos | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
AEK Larnaca is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Paphos · 1.6 pts / match - AEK Larnaca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paphos is 6% better for: goals scored per match.
1.83 goals / match - Paphos · 1.72 goals / match - AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca is 15% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.06 goals / match - Paphos · 0.92 goals / match - AEK Larnaca
Paphos scores in 86% of matches (31 of 36 matches), while AEK Larnaca keeps a clean sheet in 33% (12 of 36 matches).
AEK Larnaca scores in 86% of matches (31 of 36 matches), while Paphos keeps a clean sheet in 42% (15 of 36 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Paphos
Over / Under — AEK Larnaca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Paphos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 47% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
AEK Larnaca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 53% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (25 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): +10 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Paphos
AEK Larnaca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First Division).
Teams vs league
| Paphos | Liga | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.89 | 2.64 | • 2.64 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 47% | 43% | ▲ 53% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 48% | ▼ 42% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 42% | 31% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 73% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | • 78% | 79% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Paphos 1 - 2 - 0 AEK Larnaca. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Paphos vs AEK Larnaca?
The First Division match finished Paphos 1:2 AEK Larnaca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Paphos and AEK Larnaca?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Paphos won 1, AEK Larnaca won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Paphos vs AEK Larnaca?
Paphos score 1.83 goals per game on average and AEK Larnaca 1.72. The First Division average is 2.64 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Paphos's matches and 53% of AEK Larnaca's.
What form are Paphos and AEK Larnaca in?
Over the last 5 games Paphos have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and AEK Larnaca 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Paphos vs AEK Larnaca?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Paphos vs AEK Larnaca: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.