Paphos vs AEK Larnaca: match statistics
Paphos presents impressive home form with 88% of matches won and only 13% lost, making them a very difficult rival at their own stadium. The hosts have a better average of goals scored in home matches (2.25) and higher shot conversion efficiency (19% vs 15%), while also dominating possession (60% vs 56%). AEK Larnaca, despite solid away form (56% wins), lost their last away match and shows a higher percentage of games without scoring on the road (22% vs 13% for Paphos at home). The difference in goal difference also speaks in favor of the hosts (+15 in home matches vs +9 for the guests on the road). Considering all these factors, Paphos is predicted as the slight favorite, although AEK Larnaca has the potential to put up stiff resistance, which increases the chance of a draw.
Paphos vs AEK Larnaca: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Paphos played against AEK Larnaca in First Division (Cyprus). The game was played on January 25, 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Recent form
Paphos has 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.80 points per game. AEK Larnaca has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 2.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Paphos scores 1.94 goals per game and allows 0.82. AEK Larnaca scores 1.83 and allows 0.89. Games in this league average 2.51 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 41% of Paphos's games and 56% of AEK Larnaca's. The Over 2.5 rates are 53% and 44%, compared with league averages of 37% for BTTS and 47% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
AEK Larnaca has the higher season xG average, 1.49 to 1.48 per game. Paphos takes 11.3 shots per game, while AEK Larnaca takes 12.1.
First-half and second-half trends
Paphos leads at halftime in 65% of its games and scores 1.00 goals per game after halftime. AEK Larnaca leads at halftime in 56% and scores 0.83 after halftime.
When the teams score
Paphos's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (11 goals). For AEK Larnaca, it is minutes 0-15 (7 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
First Division games average 2.51 goals. Both teams score in 37% of games, and 47% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 6.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Paphos presents impressive home form with 88% of matches won and only 13% lost, making them a very difficult rival at their own stadium. The hosts have a better average of goals scored in home matches (2.25) and higher shot conversion efficiency (19% vs 15%), while also dominating possession (60% vs 56%). AEK Larnaca, despite solid away form (56% wins), lost their last away match and shows a higher percentage of games without scoring on the road (22% vs 13% for Paphos at home). The difference in goal difference also speaks in favor of the hosts (+15 in home matches vs +9 for the guests on the road). Considering all these factors, Paphos is predicted as the slight favorite, although AEK Larnaca has the potential to put up stiff resistance, which increases the chance of a draw.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Paphos | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
AEK Larnaca is 11% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / game - Paphos · 2 pts / game - AEK Larnaca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paphos is 6% better for: goals scored per game.
1.94 goals / game - Paphos · 1.83 goals / game - AEK Larnaca
Paphos is 9% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.82 goals / game - Paphos · 0.89 goals / game - AEK Larnaca
Paphos scores in 88% of games (15 of 17 meczów), while AEK Larnaca keeps a clean sheet in 33% (6 of 18 meczów).
AEK Larnaca scores in 89% of games (16 of 18 meczów), while Paphos keeps a clean sheet in 47% (8 of 17 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Paphos
Over / Under - AEK Larnaca
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Paphos is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.29 pts / game - Paphos · 1.94 pts / game - AEK Larnaca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Paphos - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 65% of games and wins 71%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.5 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
AEK Larnaca - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 56% of games and wins 61%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Paphos
AEK Larnaca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First Division).
Teams vs league
| Paphos | Liga | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.76 | 2.51 | ▲ 2.72 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 41% | 37% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 53% | 47% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 47% | 34% | • 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 76% | 71% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 81% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Paphos's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against AEK Larnaca. Games average 6.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Paphos vs AEK Larnaca?
The First Division match finished Paphos 1:2 AEK Larnaca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Paphos vs AEK Larnaca?
Paphos score 1.94 goals per game on average and AEK Larnaca 1.83. The First Division average is 2.51 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 41% of Paphos's matches and 56% of AEK Larnaca's.
What form are Paphos and AEK Larnaca in?
Over the last 5 games Paphos have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and AEK Larnaca 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Paphos vs AEK Larnaca?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Paphos vs AEK Larnaca: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.