Parma vs Roma: match statistics

Roma is the favorite here based on the data: this season the visitors have scored 52 goals versus Parma's 25, and away they average 1.24 goals with an xG of 1.27, while Parma at home averages 0.76 goals with an xG of 1.28. The visitors create clearly better chances — 3.82 shots on target per match versus the hosts' 2.94 — and convert 12% of shots, whereas Parma's conversion is only 6%. Parma fail to score in 41% of home matches and have conceded 42 goals this season (1.29 on average at home), while Roma have conceded 29 goals this season (1.12 away) and record 35% clean sheets on the road versus Parma's 24%. In the last 5 matches Roma have scored 12 goals and average 2.0 points per game, while Parma have only 4 goals and 1.6 points per game, demonstrating the visitors' superiority in form and efficiency. Based on this, I predict a Roma win.

I project No BTTS for this fixture. Parma concedes only 0.56 goals per home match and has kept a clean sheet in 56% of games; their season BTTS rate is just 28%. Roma scores 1.24 goals on average away and has 2.4 G/90 in the last 5 matches, but their away BTTS rate is only 41%, which does not offset Parma’s home defensive profile. xG analysis shows Parma posts 1.75 xG at home while allowing 0.95 xG, whereas Roma records 1.27 xG away and concedes 1.36 xG; this points to limited likelihood of an open, high-scoring contest. Last 5 form yields BTTS in 40% of matches for both sides, but the underlying goal averages (Parma 0.8 in last 5, Roma 2.4) and Parma’s high clean sheet frequency (56%) indicate No BTTS as the stronger scenario. I assign 35% to BTTS - Yes and 65% to BTTS - No.

Calculated xG yields a total of approximately 2.67 (Parma 1.56, Roma 1.11): Parma’s value is an average of their xG_for 1.75 and Roma’s xG_against 1.36 (→1.56), Roma’s from xG_for 1.27 and xG_against vs Parma 0.95 (→1.11). Season averages confirm moderate attacking output — Parma scores 1.72 and concedes 0.56 per home match, Roma scores 1.24 and concedes 1.12 away; both teams have 67% and 59% of matches respectively over 1.5 goals. Parma generates more chances (15.28 shots and 5.11 on target) than Roma (10.47 and 3.82), but keeps 56% clean sheets at home, which limits the risk of a very high-scoring game. Based on a Poisson model with λ=2.67 the probabilities are ~75% for Over 1.5, ~52% for Over 2.5 and ~28% for Over 3.5, and additionally Roma scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches (avg 2.4), which slightly shifts the chance toward Over 2.5. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal — solid xG (2.67) and high shares of matches over 1.5 (67%/59%) give this market an edge.

Parma holds a clear edge in season-long metrics: at home they average 1.72 goals scored and concede 0.56, while Roma as an away side records 1.24 scored and 1.12 conceded; Parma’s xG is 1.75 versus Roma’s 1.27, and xG against is 0.95 versus 1.36. The hosts create substantially more chances: on average 15.28 shots and 5.11 on target at home compared to 10.47 and 3.82 for Roma, which, combined with stronger first-half defending (Parma concedes just 0.17 goals on average and records 83% clean sheets at the break), gives them an advantage. At half-time Parma led in 7 of 18 matches (39%), with draws at half in 9 of 18 (50%), so a draw HT is the most frequent state; at the same time Parma win 67% of home matches, indicating many decisions occur after the break. Second-half data confirm this: Parma scores on average 1.00 goal after the break and wins the second half in 61% of cases, while Roma as visitors score 0.53 and concede 0.71 in the second half, so the hosts are more likely to produce a turnaround after half-time. Therefore the most probable scenario based on the supplied data is a draw at half-time and a Parma win at full-time (X/1), and I assign the highest probability to that outcome.