Partizani Tirana vs Bylis Ballsh: match statistics

Partizani Tirana holds a clear advantage in key home metrics: they score 0.93 goals per game with an average xG of 1.25 and concede 1.0, while Bylis on the road averages 0.73 goals with xG 1.02 and concedes 1.8. The hosts create more chances and shots on target — 9.07 shots and 2.93 on target per home match versus 8.07 and 2.13 for Bylis; goal conversion rate is 10% vs 9%. The defensive gap is significant: Partizani have 40% clean sheets at home and lose only 33% of matches, whereas Bylis record 20% clean sheets and as many as 60% defeats away. In the last 5 matches Bylis average 1.4 points compared to Partizani's 1.0, but in that period the hosts scored 6 and conceded 9, while the visitors scored 4 and conceded 6, indicating Partizani create more opportunities despite Bylis’ better recent point return. Considering the higher xG (1.25 vs 1.02), greater number of shots on target and stronger home defense, I predict a home win; estimated probabilities: 60% Partizani win, 25% draw, 15% Bylis win.

Partizani has a seasonal BTTS rate of 56% at home, while Bylis has 47% — the average is 51.5%, providing a moderate signal for 'BTTS - Yes'. Seasonal combined xG are 1.36 (Partizani) and 1.02 (Bylis), which in a Poisson model yields about a 47.5% chance, whereas recent 5-match xG of 1.43 and 1.21 raises this estimate to approximately 53.4%. A counterargument is Bylis's low finishing (0.73 goals per game and only 2.13 shots on target), but their defense concedes frequently (1.8 on average), and Partizani has conceded 9 goals in the last 5 matches (1.8 per game), increasing the likelihood of the opponent scoring. Weighing season BTTS 56%/47%, higher form xG and Partizani's advantage in shots on target (4.06 vs 2.13), I lean toward BTTS = Yes and assess the probability at 55% vs 45%.

Partizani generates an average xG of 1.36 and scores 1.13 goals per match, Bylis has xG 1.02 and averages 0.73 goals; meanwhile the teams concede xG against of 1.19 (Partizani) and 1.40 (Bylis), indicating scoring potential from both sides. Combining offensive xG with defensive xG I expect about 1.38 goals for the home side ((1.36+1.40)/2) and 1.11 for the visitors ((1.02+1.19)/2), totaling ~2.49 goals. Season-long Over 1.5 occurred in 56% of Partizani’s matches and 67% of Bylis’s matches (avg ~62%), while clean sheets occur in only 19% and 20% of games, hence an increased probability of at least two goals; therefore I assess the chance of Over 1.5 at approximately 70%. Over 2.5 is less convincing – season rates 44% for the home side and 47% for the away side, and although the combined xG 2.49 is close to the 2.5 line, last 5 matches data are mixed (home 60% Over 2.5, away 40%), so I assign this market about 48%. Over 3.5 remains unlikely (season 19% and 20%, neither team has a 4+ goal match this season – 0%), therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

First-half statistics strongly indicate a draw at the break: Partizani led at half-time in 25% of matches, Bylis only in 7%, and the home side scores an average of 0.31 goals before the break while conceding just 0.13; additionally Partizani kept a clean sheet at half-time in 88% of games, which reduces the likelihood of first-half goals. After the break the picture favors the hosts — both teams register a high proportion of goals in the second half (88% for Partizani and 87% for Bylis), and the home side scored 6 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to 0 goals for the visitors in that interval, suggesting a turnaround after the break. In terms of chance quality Partizani have an xG of 1.36 versus 1.02 for Bylis, register more on-target shots (4.06 vs 2.13) and earn on average 1.44 points per home match compared to Bylis’s 0.53 away. Given these numbers the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1), therefore this outcome is assigned the highest probability.