Partizani Tirana vs Dinamo Tirana: match statistics

Dinamo Tirana are the match favorites: in the last 5 rounds the visitors averaged 1.6 points per game, while Partizani only 0.2. The hosts scored just 3 goals in those five matches and failed to win (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses), conceding 12 goals; Dinamo have 7 goals, 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, and conceded 6. Home/away metrics also favor Dinamo: the visitors have average xG 1.48 versus 1.30 for the hosts, on average 11.94 shots per game away compared to 9.82 shots for the hosts, and better defensive numbers (0.82 goals conceded away vs 1.18 for the hosts). Dinamo’s weakness is low efficiency on the road (avg. 0.88 goals away, conversion rate 7% and failed to score in 53% of away matches), which raises the likelihood of a draw. Considering the visitors’ superior form, higher xG (1.48 vs 1.30) and the hosts’ much worse defensive record in the last 5 matches (12 goals conceded), I predict a Dinamo win.

I back BTTS - Yes (70% vs 30%) because in the last 5 matches both teams registered BTTS at 60% versus a season league rate of 46%. Partizani conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches (12 conceded), while Dinamo scored an average of 1.4 goals (7 scored), which clearly indicates the visitors have a real chance to score against the hosts’ recently weak defense. xG stats show Partizani generates 1.72 xG per match and Dinamo 1.48 xG, with xG against around 1.21–1.22; additionally Partizani records 4.67 shots on target versus Dinamo’s 3.24, so goal-scoring chances are created at both ends. Season BTTS rates are 50% for Partizani and 35% for Dinamo, and clean sheet percentages are only 33% and 35% — clean sheets therefore occur in only about one third of matches, which increases the probability of both teams scoring. Given the 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches, the hosts’ average of 2.4 goals conceded and xG above 1.4 for both teams, the strongest signal from the data is BTTS - Yes.

Averaging xG and opponent defenses yields 1.47 expected goals for Partizani (xG_for 1.72 vs Dinamo defense 1.21) and 1.35 for Dinamo (xG_for 1.48 vs Partizani defense 1.22), totaling 2.82. With that mean, a Poisson distribution gives roughly a 77% chance of Over 1.5 goals, ~54% for Over 2.5 and ~31% for Over 3.5. Seasonally the home side has 78% of matches Over 1.5 and 33% Over 2.5, while visitors have 53% Over 1.5 and 29% Over 2.5; however, in the last 5 home matches Over 2.5 is 60% (visitors 40%), which increases the short-term probability of more goals. Additionally, Partizani averages 4.67 shots on target per match versus Dinamo’s 3.24, and in the last 5 matches the hosts scored only 3 and conceded 12 goals (avg 0.6/2.4), indicating defensive weakness and raising the risk of goals. For these reasons the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5; Over 2.5 has moderate value, while Over 3.5 looks too risky.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time with a Partizani victory at full-time (X/1) — I assign it a 26% probability. Draws at the break are the most common: hosts were level at half-time in 44% of matches, while visitors were level in 47%; hosts average 0.67 goals by HT versus 0.24 for Dinamo. On a season basis Partizani score 1.50 goals per game versus Dinamo’s 0.88, have higher xG (1.72 vs 1.48) and more shots on target (4.67 vs 3.24), which gives them a qualitative advantage in the second half. Additionally, the hosts average 0.83 second-half goals versus 0.65 for the visitors and lead at the break in 28% of matches, increasing the likelihood of a turnaround after an HT draw. For these reasons I consider scenarios X/1 (26%), 1/1 (19%) and X/X (16%) to be the most probable.