PEC Zwolle vs Ajax: match statistics

Ajax enter the match as league runners-up and are on a perfect run of 5 consecutive victories, while PEC Zwolle sit 12th and have lost 4 of their last 5 matches. During this period, the visitors scored 14 goals—an average of 2.8 per game—while conceding only 4. PEC Zwolle have scored just 4 goals in five matches, while their defense has allowed as many as 14, averaging 2.8 goals conceded per game. The difference in form is also evident in the points tally from the last five rounds: Ajax averaged 3 points, while the hosts managed only 0.6. Given such a clear disparity in attacking efficiency and defensive organization, an away win for Ajax is the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal points towards at least one team failing to score, primarily due to PEC Zwolle’s weak attacking output: they have scored only 4 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.8 per game. Ajax, meanwhile, have conceded just 4 goals over the same period, an average of 0.8 per match, while their average xG conceded stood at only 0.92. Zwolle have also generated just 0.90 xG per match, while conceding an average of 2.8 goals, increasing the likelihood that Ajax will win without needing a response from the hosts. Although Ajax recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches and scored an average of 2.8 goals, Zwolle’s BTTS rate was only 40%, and their current form consists of four defeats in five matches. The most likely scenario is therefore one in which Ajax score, but PEC Zwolle fail to breach the visitors’ well-organized defense. This supports the BTTS - No / No Goal market, which means that at least one team will fail to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or neither team scoring.

Ajax are on an excellent run of five consecutive wins, scoring 14 goals in their last 5 matches, or 2.8 per game, with an average xG of 2.34. Over the same period, PEC Zwolle conceded as many as 14 goals, or 2.8 per match, while their average xG conceded stands at 1.80, which favors high attacking output from the visitors. The hosts scored only 0.8 goals per game and generated an xG of 0.90, but despite Ajax’s strong defensive record, they conceded an average of 0.8 goals, making a single Zwolle goal a realistic possibility. At least 3 goals were scored in 60% of Zwolle’s recent matches and 80% of Ajax’s games, so the projected total of 3.10 goals provides the strongest edge for Over 1.5.

Ajax have won all of their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.8 goals and conceding just 0.8, while PEC Zwolle have lost four of their last five games, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded per match. Ajax were leading at the break in 50% of these matches and never went into half-time trailing, whereas Zwolle scored just 0.2 goals per game before the break and failed to score in the first half in 80% of cases. After the interval, Ajax still look clearly superior: they score an average of 1.75 goals, concede 0.25, and won the second half in 75% of their last outings. The most likely scenario is therefore Ajax taking the lead at half-time and maintaining it until the final whistle.