Peñarol vs Progreso: match statistics
Peñarol vs Progreso: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Peñarol played against Progreso in Primera División (Uruguay). The game was played on October 10, 2026. Venue: Estadio Campeón del Siglo. Final score: 1:1.
Recent form
Peñarol has 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 2.60 points per game. Progreso has 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses, with 1.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Peñarol scores 1.72 goals per game and allows 0.81. Progreso scores 0.87 and allows 1.48. Games in this league average 2.39 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 53% of Peñarol's games and 45% of Progreso's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 45%, compared with league averages of 51% for BTTS and 45% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Peñarol has the higher season xG average, 1.67 to 1.18 per game. Peñarol takes 13.9 shots per game, while Progreso takes 8.7.
First-half and second-half trends
Peñarol leads at halftime in 41% of its games and scores 0.97 goals per game after halftime. Progreso leads at halftime in 19% and scores 0.52 after halftime.
When the teams score
Peñarol's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (16 goals). For Progreso, it is minutes 76-90+ (11 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Primera División games average 2.39 goals. Both teams score in 51% of games, and 45% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 3 home wins, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Peñarol sit top of the table and are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, recording 3 wins and conceding 4 goals; Progreso have lost 3 of their last 5 games and conceded 9 goals in that run. At home, the hosts average 1.94 goals and 5.94 shots on target per match, while the visitors score 0.81 goals and register 3.38 shots on target away from home. Peñarol’s advantage in the quality of chances created is reflected in their home xG of 1.80, compared with Progreso’s away xG of 1.14. The hosts concede an average of 1.06 goals at home, while Progreso fail to score in 44% of their away matches and lose 63% of them. These differences point to a Peñarol win, although their clean-sheet rate of 12% at home means the visitors cannot be ruled out from scoring.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
In the last five matches for both teams, both sides scored in 80% of games, a stronger indicator for BTTS - Yes than their season rates of 47% and 44%. During this period, Peñarol and Progreso each scored 1.4 goals per match, while Progreso conceded an average of 1.8, giving the hosts a good opportunity to score. The visitors’ chances are supported by the fact that Peñarol conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match over the season and kept a clean sheet in only 13% of games. Caution is still warranted, however: the season scoring averages are just 0.93 goals for Peñarol and 0.81 for Progreso, so the edge for BTTS - Yes remains moderate.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal is for Under 3.5 goals: this line was hit in 80% of Peñarol's matches and 87% of Progreso's. Both teams have scored relatively few goals this season, averaging 0.93 and 0.81 per match, respectively, despite posting average xG figures of 1.22 and 1.14. Each side has averaged 1.4 goals across its last five matches, but 80% of Progreso's recent games went Over 2.5 goals, weakening the case for a lower line. The forecast of 2.45 total goals accounts for this improved attacking output while remaining close to the league average of 2.38 goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals offers a clearer edge than Under 2.5 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest indication that Peñarol will lead at the break comes from Progreso’s record: they were trailing at half-time in 56% of matches and led in only 13%. The home side led at the break in 27% of games and averaged 0.47 goals before half-time, compared with 0.25 for the visitors. Recent form supports the prospect of Peñarol holding on to any lead: they have lost none of their last five matches, winning three, while Progreso have lost three of five and conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match. A half-time draw remains a serious alternative, as Peñarol went into the break level in four of their last five matches. However, Progreso’s poor starts and the home side’s clearly stronger results in recent weeks give slightly more weight to the 1/1 scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Peñarol | Progreso | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Peñarol is 44% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / game - Peñarol · 1.8 pts / game - Progreso
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Peñarol is 98% better for: goals scored per game.
1.72 goals / game - Peñarol · 0.87 goals / game - Progreso
Peñarol is 83% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.81 goals / game - Peñarol · 1.48 goals / game - Progreso
Peñarol scores in 84% of games (27 of 32 games), while Progreso keeps a clean sheet in 13% (4 of 31 games).
Progreso scores in 58% of games (18 of 31 games), while Peñarol keeps a clean sheet in 34% (11 of 32 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Peñarol
Over / Under - Progreso
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Peñarol is 66% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.56 pts / game - Peñarol · 0.94 pts / game - Progreso
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Peñarol - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 41% of games and wins 63%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Progreso - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 19% of games and wins 26%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (16 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +12 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Peñarol
Progreso
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Peñarol | Liga | Progreso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.53 | 2.39 | • 2.35 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 53% | 51% | ▼ 45% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 45% | • 45% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 34% | 29% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 72% | 67% | ▲ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 73% | ▲ 77% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Peñarol's perspective: 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses against Progreso. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 67% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Peñarol vs Progreso?
The Primera División match finished Peñarol 1:1 Progreso. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Peñarol and Progreso?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Peñarol won 3, Progreso won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Peñarol vs Progreso?
Peñarol score 1.72 goals per game on average and Progreso 0.87. The Primera División average is 2.39 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Peñarol's matches and 45% of Progreso's.
What form are Peñarol and Progreso in?
Over the last 5 games Peñarol have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Progreso 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Peñarol vs Progreso?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Peñarol vs Progreso: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.