Pérez Zeledón vs Inter San Carlos: match statistics

Pérez Zeledón have a clear home advantage: they won their only home match so far, kept a clean sheet and averaged 6 shots on target from 12 attempts. Inter San Carlos, meanwhile, lost their only away fixture, conceding 3 goals, while their attacking output on the road amounted to just 1 shot on target and an xG of 0,77. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1,51 xG at home, whereas the visitors have produced a low level of chances despite 57% possession. Inter’s form over the last five matches is better, with 2 wins and just 1 defeat compared with Pérez Zeledón’s 1-2-2 record, but the hosts’ home-and-away data advantage should prove decisive. Both teams have scored in every match played in their respective conditions, but Inter’s weak away defensive record points to a greater likelihood of a home win.

The recent data from both teams does not strongly support a goalscoring scenario at both ends: BTTS occurred in only 40% of the last 5 matches involving Pérez Zeledón and Inter San Carlos, compared with a league average of 60%. During this period, the hosts scored just 0.6 goals per game, while their average xG stood at 1.35. Combined with the visitors’ defense conceding only 0.8 goals per match recently, this increases the risk of the home side failing to score. Inter San Carlos averaged 1.0 goals across their last 5 appearances, but the visitors’ seasonal xG of 0.77 and just 1.0 shot on target per game point to limited attacking potential. Although the hosts have recently conceded 1.4 goals per match, it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score than that both attacks will find the net.

Pérez Zeledón should create more chances, averaging 13 shots and 7.5 shots on target per match, while Inter San Carlos concede an average of 3.0 goals away from home. At the same time, both teams’ current form limits the prospect of a high-scoring game: over their last five matches, the hosts scored just 0.6 goals per game, while the visitors averaged 1.0. Each team had only 20% of matches featuring at least three goals during this period, with an average total of 2.0 goals in Pérez Zeledón matches and 1.8 in Inter’s games. The projected total of 2.30 goals is below the league average of 2.53, making a result with no more than three goals the most likely scenario. The Under 3.5 line is further supported by the fact that the hosts kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches, while Inter conceded only 0.8 goals per game across their last five outings.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Inter San Carlos win at full-time, as Pérez Zeledón were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Inter. Over this period, both teams scored just 0.4 goals before half-time, against averages of 0.6 first-half goals in the hosts’ matches and 0.8 in the visitors’ matches, clearly favouring a cautious opening. After the break, Inter average 0.6 goals, while Pérez Zeledón concede as many as 1.2, and the visitors have averaged 1.6 points per game across their last five matches, compared with 1.0 for the hosts. The final-outcome form also supports the visitors: they won 40% of their last five matches and lost 20%, while the hosts won only 20% and suffered defeats in 40%. Season statistics at this stage are more favourable to the hosts, who are unbeaten at home and concede 0.5 goals per match, but their weaker current attacking output of 0.6 goals per game reduces the chances of holding a lead or producing a turnaround from a draw.