Persebaya Surabaya vs Persik Kediri: match statistics

Persebaya Surabaya has a clear edge in form and attack: in the last 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 17 goals (3.4 per match) and averaging 2.6 points per game, while Persik Kediri over their last 5 have 2 wins and 3 losses, scoring 8 goals (1.6 per match) and averaging 1.2 points per game. At home Persebaya averages 1.81 goals, registers 5.44 shots on target from 13.81 total shots and has a conversion rate of 13%, whereas Persik away averages 0.94 goals, 3.25 shots on target and a 9% conversion. Defensively the hosts also look better: Persebaya concedes 1.13 goals at home and has a 31% clean sheet rate; they have not conceded in their last 5 matches, while Persik concedes 2.00 goals away, have a -17 away goal difference and have conceded 9 goals in their last 5 fixtures. The difference in quality of chances confirms the hosts’ advantage — average xG is 1.74 for Persebaya versus 1.25 for Persik, and the percentage of matches without scoring is 6% versus 31%, which increases the likelihood Persebaya will score. Considering league position (4 vs 12), better goals average (1.81 vs 0.94), more shots on target (5.44 vs 3.25) and stronger defense, I assess the probabilities as: Home win 78%, Draw 12%, Away win 10%.

Seasonal data indicate BTTS tendencies: Persebaya has 82% of matches with both teams scoring, Persik away 56%, while the league average is 53%. However, Persebaya's recent form is exceptionally defensive — in the last five matches they have scored 17 goals total (avg 3.4) and conceded none (conceded avg in last 5: 0.0), with BTTS in those five matches at 0%. Persik away scores only 0.94 goals on average and concedes 2.0, additionally failing to score in 31% of away games; in the last 5 matches they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. xG corroborates the home advantage: Persebaya seasonal xG is 1.64 versus Persik 1.25, and in the last 5 Persebaya has xG 1.93 with xG against 1.22, indicating greater control of chance creation and lower risk of conceding. Considering Persebaya’s 82% seasonal BTTS but 0% in the last 5 and Persik’s poor away efficiency (0.94 avg and 31% games without a goal), it is more likely that both teams will not score — I assign 60% to 'No' and 40% to 'Yes'.

Based on the data, I expect about 2.92 goals in the match, split as Persebaya 1.62 and Persik 1.30 expected goals. Persebaya averages 1.59 goals scored per game with an xG of 1.64, while Persik concedes 2.00 goals on average and has an xG against of 1.59, yielding the calculation (1.64+1.59)/2 ≈ 1.62 for the home side. Persik has a season scoring average of 0.94 and xG of 1.25, and Persebaya concedes 1.35, hence (1.25+1.35)/2 ≈ 1.30 expected goals for the visitors. Season-long indicators confirm an aggressive match profile: Over 1.5 occurred for the home team in 82% of matches and for the away team in 94%, while Over 2.5 occurred in 65% and 75% respectively, translating to estimated Over 1.5=92% and Over 2.5=72%. Therefore the best line to play is Over 1.5 — the total expected sum of 2.92, low clean sheet rates (12% for the home side and 13% for the visitors) and a high share of BTTS matches (82% and 56%) provide a strong signal for the over.

Persebaya has the edge in the first half: they led at the break in 7 matches (41%) and score an average of 1.06 goals in the first half, while Persik records only 0.25 goals in the first 45 minutes. Over the season hosts average 1.59 goals per match and collect 1.71 points per match, whereas the visitors have 0.94 goals and 0.63 points respectively, indicating a clear Persebaya advantage. Additionally, the hosts’ xG is 1.64 versus the visitors’ 1.25; the hosts average 5.29 shots on target compared to 3.25 and have a higher conversion rate (13% vs 9%), so they are more likely to produce goals both before and after the break. In the last 5 matches Persebaya won 4 of 5 (80%) while Persik won 2 of 5 (40%), and the hosts have conceded an average of 0.0 goals in this short run, which increases the chance of maintaining a lead. On this basis I tip HT/FT 1/1 as the strongest signal (I rate it at 35%), with alternative scenarios being a half-time draw followed by a home win (X/1 26%) or a full-time draw (X/X 14%).