Persekat vs Persiba Balikpapan: match statistics

Persekat is a marginal favorite in this match because at home they concede on average 0.77 goals per game and keep a clean sheet in 54% of matches, whereas Persiba concede 1.79 goals away and have recorded no clean sheets (0%). In attack the hosts generate more high-quality chances: on average 5.46 shots on target and xG 1.68 per home match versus Persiba’s 2.93 shots on target and xG 0.93 away, which translates to 1.00 goal on average for Persekat versus 0.79 for the visitors. Form slightly favors the hosts — Persekat over the last 5 matches have a record of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (PPG 1.0), while Persiba have not won in their last 5 (0-2-3, PPG 0.4) and have conceded 10 goals compared to Persekat’s 9. However, note that Persekat often draw at home (draw% 62%), and Persiba have a high away loss rate (64%) and as many as 43% of away matches without scoring, so a draw is a realistic scenario. The sum of these data — Persekat’s advantage in xG and shots on target and Persiba’s greater defensive vulnerability — leads me to indicate a home win as the most likely outcome.

I lean towards BTTS - Yes because in the last 5 matches Persekat had BTTS in 80% of games and Persiba in 60%, giving a short-term average of 70%. Persiba have kept zero clean sheets away (0%) and concede on average 1.79 goals per game this season, while Persekat concedes 1.31 at home; in the last 5 meetings both teams have conceded on average 1.8 and 2.0 goals respectively. Persekat generate at home an average of 9.15 shots and 3.85 on target with xG 1.15, while Persiba concede opponents' xG 1.54, indicating the visitors’ vulnerability to conceding. Season BTTS rates are 46% (Persekat) and 57% (Persiba) versus a league average of 50%, and both teams have conceded 38 and 42 goals respectively this season, which further supports both teams scoring. Based on this I assess BTTS probability at 70% for Yes and 30% for No.

I project total xG around 2.21 (Persekat 1.35 vs Persiba 0.86), calculated as the average of home xG_for (1.15) and away xG_against (1.54) and the average of away xG_for (0.93) and home xG_against (0.79). Seasonal averages confirm a moderate scoring tempo: Persekat scores 0.92 and concedes 1.31 per match, Persiba scores 0.79 and concedes 1.79, while in the last 5 matches the home side increased to 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded versus 1.0/2.0 for the away team. Seasonally Over 1.5 occurred for Persekat in 62% of matches and for Persiba in 86% (average 74%), and the xG model (lambda 2.21) gives a probability of ≥2 goals of about 65%, so I estimate Over 1.5 at ~70% (Under 30%) and recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal. The 2.5 line is more balanced: seasonally 54%/50% Over 2.5, in the last 5 matches 40%/60%, and a Poisson based on xG suggests ~38% for ≥3 goals, therefore I assign Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%). I consider Over 3.5 unlikely (seasonally 15% for Persekat and 7% for Persiba), hence Under 3.5 at 89%.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a home win (X/1). Both teams frequently draw at the break — drawingAtHTPercentage_home 54% and drawingAtHTPercentage_away 50% (about 52% on average) — and the home side keep a first-half clean sheet in 62% of matches (seasonCSPercentageHT_home 62%), supporting a goalless or low-scoring draw after 45 minutes. After the break Persekat should gain the advantage: home xG 1.15 versus away xG 0.93 (xg_for_avg_home 1.15 vs xg_for_avg_away 0.93), while the visitors concede on average 1.79 goals per match (seasonConcededAVG_away 1.79) with an xG against of 1.54 (xg_against_avg_away 1.54). The home team also register more shots (9.15 vs 6.57) and more shots on target (3.85 vs 2.93), and their season goals average 0.92 versus the visitors’ 0.79 (seasonScoredAVG_home 0.92 vs seasonScoredAVG_away 0.79), increasing the likelihood that after a draw at the break Persekat will win the match.