Persib vs Bali United: match statistics

I back the home win: Persib has won 100% of home matches and kept 92% clean sheets, conceding just 0.08 goals per home game, while Bali United concedes 1.92 goals on the road and has only a 23% clean sheet rate. Offensively Bali is slightly more efficient — averaging 2.08 goals away versus Persib’s 1.92 at home and a higher conversion rate of 16% versus the hosts’ 13% — but xG suggests comparable output: Persib xG at home 1.65 vs Bali xG away 1.51. Last 5 matches also favor Persib: the hosts scored 13 goals, remain unbeaten with a 3-2-0 record and conceded only 3 goals (0.6 per game), while Bali also scored 13 but conceded 10 (2.0 per game) and average 1.6 points per game versus Persib’s 2.2. Persib creates more high-quality chances at home: 15.15 shots and 5.77 on target per game versus Bali’s 12.92 shots and 4.62 on target away, and the home goal difference advantage (+24) vs Bali’s +2 away highlights the disparity. Considering Persib’s 100% home win rate, the very low average concession of 0.08 and Bali’s weak away defense (1.92), the prediction is a home victory with a relatively low probability of a draw.

Statistical analysis shows mixed signals: Bali United has a seasonal BTTS 69% and failed to score in only 8% of matches (so scores in about 92%), while Persib has a seasonal BTTS 38% and failed to score in 46% of matches (scores in about 54%). From an xG perspective Persib has xG_for 1.63 versus Bali xG_against 1.72 (Persib expected goals ~1.67), and Bali has xG_for 1.51 versus Persib xG_against 1.41 (Bali expected ~1.46) — both sides have expected goals >1.4. In the last 5 matches both teams scored 13 goals each (avg 2.6), with Persib conceding only 3 goals in the last 5 (0.6 per game) and Bali conceding 10 (2.0 per game), suggesting Bali is more prone to conceding. However Persib has a high clean sheet expected rate 46% and a lower shot conversion 8% (versus Bali 16%), which increases the risk Persib may not score. In summary, given the high certainty that Bali will score (92%) and xG above 1.4 for both teams, I give a slight edge to BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability 56% vs 44%.

The model projects xG Persib 1.68 and Bali United 1.46 (opponent attack and defense averages), totaling 3.14 expected goals. Bali averages 2.08 goals season-to-date and has 77% of matches Over 2.5, while in the last 5 meetings both teams combined for 13 goals (2.6 per match). Bali converts shots far more efficiently (16% vs 8% for Persib) and records 4.62 shots on target vs 4.38 for Persib, increasing scoring potential despite Persib’s 46% clean sheets and 14 goals conceded this season. A Poisson model with total lambda ≈3.14 yields ~82% probability for Over 1.5, ~61% for Over 2.5 and ~38% for Over 3.5, so I expect at least two goals. Strongest signal is Over 1.5 (pick: Over 1.5) due to the high expected total goals and Bali’s consistent efficiency.

Seasonal statistics favor Bali United: the visitors average 2.08 goals scored per match and 1.92 conceded, while Persib average 1.08 scored and 1.00 conceded; Bali win 46% of away matches versus Persib’s 23% home win rate. At the break Bali led in 46% of their away games (leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 46.0), whereas the home side led at half-time in only 8% of home fixtures (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 8.0); additionally Bali have scored 21 goals by half-time vs. Persib’s 10 and average 0.85 first-half goals compared to 0.23 (GoalsHT_away 21 vs GoalsHT_home 10; scoredAVGHT_away 0.85 vs scoredAVGHT_home 0.23). The visitors are also markedly more efficient in finishing chances — a shot conversion rate of 16% versus 8% for the hosts (shot_conversion_rate_away 16% vs shot_conversion_rate_home 8%), with xG 1.51 for Bali and 1.63 for Persib (xG_for_avg_away 1.51 vs xG_for_avg_home 1.63), suggesting Bali convert their opportunities more effectively. Consequently the strongest signal is Bali leading at the break and winning the match (Half-Time/Full-Time = 2/2). As an alternative I indicate a draw at half-time and a Bali turnaround to win after 90 minutes (X/2), since Persib are level at the break in 62% of home matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 62.0), so the X/2 scenario also has a realistic chance.