Persib vs PSIM Yogyakarta: match statistics

Persib is the clear favorite: they have 21 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses this season, sit 1st, and win 93% of home matches with no defeats, conceding an average of 0.2 goals per game and keeping clean sheets in 87% of home fixtures. In attack Persib scored 54 goals this season (averaging 1.87 per home game) and netted 11 goals in the last 5 matches, whereas PSIM have 38 goals this season and only 3 in their last 5, with no wins in those five. Persib produces better chances: average home xG is 1.74 vs xG against 0.77 and 6.2 shots on target, while PSIM away xG is 1.54 vs xG against 1.55 and only 4.67 shots on target. The form gap is clear — Persib earned 2.2 points per game in the last 5, PSIM only 0.2; the visitors conceded 7 goals in that period, and the shutout rate is 33% for PSIM away versus 7% for Persib at home. Considering the advantage in quality of chances, higher efficiency and the hosts’ extremely low average goals conceded, I forecast a Persib win.

Persib has 60% home matches with both teams scoring, while PSIM have 47% away — league average BTTS is 54%. Persib generates 1.56 xG and has scored 54 goals with 20 conceded this season, while PSIM has 1.54 xG and 38 goals scored, indicating both teams have offensive potential. In the last 5 matches Persib averaged 2.2 goals (11 in 5), and PSIM only 0.6 (3 in 5), although PSIM record more shots on target (4.67 vs 3.93), so they retain some chance to score. Considering 60% vs 47% BTTS, similar xG (1.56/1.54) and Persib’s dominance in recent form, I back BTTS - Yes with a 58% probability for Yes and 42% for No.

I forecast Over 1.5 as the best option: seasonally 73% of Persib’s matches and 73% of PSIM’s matches ended over 1.5 goals, and estimated xG is 1.56 for Persib and 1.44 for PSIM (total 3.00), which strongly supports at least two goals. Persib is in clear offensive form — 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per game), while PSIM has 3 goals in the last 5 (0.6 per game); seasonally Persib averages 13.27 shots and 3.93 on target, PSIM 13.2 and 4.67, with conversion rates of 9% and 10%. Additionally Persib’s seasonal record is 54 goals for and 20 against and 93% of matches with at least one goal, while PSIM has 38 scored and 39 conceded and 87% of matches over 0.5 goals, which supports a high-scoring scenario. Aggregate xG = 3.00 and seasonal shares of Over 2.5 (47% for Persib, 53% for PSIM, with Persib at 60% Over 2.5 in the last 5) lead me to estimate Over 2.5 at about 60% and Over 3.5 at about 35%. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (85% vs 15%), Over 2.5 is moderate (60% vs 40%), and Over 3.5 remains risky (35% vs 65%).

Persib is clearly in better form: in the last 5 matches they have a 60% win rate and score an average of 2.2 goals per game, while PSIM have a 0% win rate in their last 5 and only 0.6 goals per game on average. The first half should be low-scoring and often finishes level — Persib averages 0.4 goals by half-time, PSIM 0.47, and the half-time draw rate is 40% for the home side and 67% for the visitors. Persib hold the advantage after the break: in the last 5 matches they scored an average of 1.6 goals in the second half and collected 2.2 points in second halves, whereas PSIM have only 0.2 goals and 0.4 points after the interval, which favors a home-side turnaround. Additionally, xG indicates Persib’s solidity (xG_for 1.56 vs 1.54) and better defense (xG_against 1.33 vs 1.55), so the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time with a Persib win at full-time (X/1).