Persik Kediri vs Persijap: match statistics

The favorite is Persik Kediri and I project a home victory. Persik averages 1.83 goals per home match versus Persijap’s 0.75 away, and average xG is 1.73 vs 1.33 in favor of the hosts. The hosts register more shots on target (5.67 vs 3.67), have higher finishing efficiency (14% vs 7%) and greater possession (57% vs 47%), translating into superior offensive threat. Defensively Persik concedes 1.50 goals per home game while Persijap concedes 2.08 on the road; additionally the hosts win 50% of matches at home versus just 8% away wins for Persijap, and the visitors have failed to score in 50% of their away fixtures. Although Persik’s last 5 games are weaker (0.8 points per game: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) compared to Persijap (1.2 points per game), the superiority in quality of chances and efficiency leads to backing the home side.

Both teams have season BTTS rates around the halfway mark: Persik 54% and Persijap 50%, while the league average is 55%, which slightly favors the 'Both Teams To Score' scenario. A strong signal comes from Persik’s form — BTTS in the last 5 matches is 80% and they conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game, whereas Persijap’s last 5 BTTS is 40% with 1.4 goals conceded on average. Both sides generate xG above 1.3 (Persik xG 1.49 vs Persijap 1.33) and concede xG of 1.36 vs 1.52, indicating they create chances but are also susceptible to goals conceded. Additionally, Persijap has only 8% clean sheets this season versus Persik’s 31%, and matches over 2.5 goals occur for both teams in 54% and 58% of cases, which further boosts BTTS probability. Considering Persik’s 80% BTTS in the last 5, the high recent average goals conceded (2.4 and 1.4 in the last 5) and the league BTTS average of 55%, I tip BTTS - Yes with a 65% probability.

Based on xG I expect about 1.50 goals for Persik ((1.49 + 1.52)/2 ≈ 1.50) and 1.35 goals for Persijap ((1.33 + 1.36)/2 ≈ 1.35), totaling 2.85 goals. This exceeds the league average of 2.69 and aligns with season-long >1.5 match rates: 77% for Persik and 83% for Persijap. Persik have had 100% of their last 5 matches over 2.5 and conceded an average of 2.4 goals in those five, while Persijap conceded 1.4, which increases the risk of further goals. Shot stats (Persik 12.46 shots and 4.54 on target, Persijap 10.5 and 3.67) and conversion rates 8%/7% further support at least two goals. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5, while Over 2.5 is moderately likely (~64%) and Over 3.5 has low probability (~22%).

Persik was level at half-time in 46% of matches and led at the break in 23%, while Persijap has never led at half-time (0%), making a draw the most common state after 45 minutes. By half-time Persik averages 0.31 goals versus 0.25 for the visitors, and Persijap concedes 1.08 goals on average before the break — giving the home side a slight advantage at the interval. Over the full match Persik scores 1.00 goal on average with an xG of 1.49 from 12.46 shots, whereas Persijap has an xG of 1.33, scores 0.75 goals and concedes 2.08 goals per game; the hosts also have a higher win rate (31% vs 8%). The second half often decides matches: Persik scored at least once after the break in 85% of games, and in the last five fixtures the hosts scored after half-time in 100% of cases, so the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of a draw at the interval and a home win (X/1) is the most justified.