Persipal vs Delta Putra Sidoarjo: match statistics

I predict an away win (2). Delta Putra Sidoarjo holds a clear seasonal edge: 10 wins vs 0 for Persipal and a superior goal difference 31:27 vs 13:66. Although Persipal posts higher possession (52% vs 45%), more shots (10.8 vs 7.55) and more shots on target (4.5 vs 3.27), their shot conversion is only 7% versus 16% for the visitors, translating to 0.73 goals per game for the home side versus 1.18 for Delta. In terms of chance quality Persipal has higher home xG (1.36) than Delta’s away xG (1.03), but Persipal also concedes higher xG (1.77) than Delta (1.43), indicating the hosts create chances but are more exposed defensively. Form is poor for both: Persipal scored 3 and conceded 22 in the last 5 (0-1-4), Delta scored 2 and conceded 11 (0-0-5), which lowers predictability and increases draw risk. Considering seasonal disparities (10 wins vs 0, GD +4 vs -53), Delta’s superior shot effectiveness and better away defense, I assign 55% for an away win, 30% for a draw and 15% for a home win.

I favor BTTS - Yes as the more likely outcome: Persipal has a seasonal BTTS of 58% versus Delta’s 36%, with the league average at 48%, which supports this scenario. Persipal generates 1.94 xG per match with 17.42 shots and 6.83 shots on target, while Delta concedes 1.43 xG per match on average, so the home side has a genuine chance to score. Persipal’s defense is particularly concerning — they conceded 22 goals in the last 5 matches (4.4 avg), while Delta conceded 11 (2.2), increasing the probability that the visitors will also find the net. The counterargument is Delta’s low finishing in the last 5 matches (2 goals, 0.4 per match) and their seasonal attacking xG of 1.03, although their recent xG of 1.45 shows they can create chances. In summary, given Persipal’s xG advantage (1.94), shot advantage 17.42 vs 7.55 and the dramatic 22 goals conceded by the hosts in 5 matches, I assign BTTS 'yes' 65% versus 35% for 'no'.

xG and attacking metrics point to a goals-heavy match: Persipal posts xG 1.94 and averages 17.42 shots (6.83 on target), while Delta has xG 1.03 with 7.55 shots (3.27 on target). Using the average of attack and defense (Persipal attack xG 1.94 vs Delta conceded xG 1.43; Delta attack xG 1.03 vs Persipal conceded xG 1.14) yields 1.69 expected goals for Persipal and 1.09 for Delta, totaling 2.78 xG. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Persipal conceded 22 goals (scored 3, total 25 goals, 5.0 goals per game), while Delta had 13 goals in their last 5 (scored 2, conceded 11, 2.6 per game), which increases the likelihood of a higher-scoring outcome. Season indicators confirm the direction: Persipal have 83% of matches over 1.5, Delta 55%, and the league average is 2.66 versus our forecast of 2.78. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (≈77% probability); Over 2.5 is slightly favored (≈53%), and Over 3.5 remains less likely (≈30%).

The strongest scenario is Persipal leading at half-time and the home side winning (HT/FT 1/1). This is supported by Persipal having led at the break in 6 matches (50.0%) versus Delta in only 2 (18.0%). Persipal’s average xG is significantly higher at 1.94 compared to the visitors’ 1.03, and they generate 17.42 shots and 6.83 on target per match, whereas Delta records 7.55 shots and 3.27 on target, meaning the hosts create far more opportunities. In first halves Persipal averages 0.75 goals (16 HT goals total), while Delta averages 0.45 (10 HT goals); combined with more half-time points for the home side (20 vs 13), this favors Persipal leading after 45 minutes. Although Delta shows a higher shot conversion rate (16% vs 9%), their lower xG and fewer shots (1.03 xG and 7.55 shots) limit their chances of a turnaround in the second half. Therefore I tip HT/FT 1/1 as the strongest signal: Persipal is most likely to open the scoring and maintain the lead until full-time.