Persiraja Banda Aceh vs Sumsel United: match statistics

Persiraja Banda Aceh has a clear offensive edge at home — averaging 2 goals per match with xG 2.05 versus Sumsel United’s 1.27 goals and xG 1.32 away. The hosts create significantly more chances — 15.6 shots and 7.7 on target per home match versus Sumsel’s 9.6 shots and 4.6 on target on the road. Defensively Persiraja concedes 1.09 goals per home match, has 0% clean sheets and a positive home goal difference of +10; Sumsel concedes 1.45 goals away, has 18% of away matches without scoring and a negative away goal difference of -2. In the last 5 matches Persiraja scored 10 goals and averaged 2 points per match (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), while Sumsel scored 7 goals and averaged 1.4 points per match (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Considering the higher xG (2.05 vs 1.32), greater shot volume (15.6 vs 9.6), lower goals conceded (1.09 vs 1.45) and superior recent form, I tip a home win; probabilities estimated at 60% for Persiraja, 25% for a draw and 15% for Sumsel.

I favor BTTS - Yes — Persiraja has a seasonal BTTS of 64% versus Sumsel's 55% and average goals per match 1.91 (home) vs 1.27 (away), which seasonally favors a scoring game. The xG of both teams is similar: 1.34 (Persiraja) vs 1.32 (Sumsel), while xG against shows greater vulnerability for Sumsel to concede (1.66 vs 1.02), increasing the likelihood the away side will concede. In the last 5 matches Persiraja had BTTS at 80% and averaged 2.0 goals scored while conceding 1.4, whereas Sumsel in the last 5 has BTTS 40% and averages 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded; this suggests a home attacking edge and a higher match tempo. Additionally Persiraja averages 5.09 shots on target vs 4.6 for Sumsel and has a conversion rate of 20% vs 14% for the opponents, and clean sheets occur only in 36% and 27% of cases; these figures support the both teams to score scenario. Considering seasonal and recent data and the league average BTTS of 49% and goals average 2.67, I assess the probability of BTTS 'Yes' at 70% vs 30% for 'No'.

The xG model and head-to-head metrics yield expected goals of 1.50 for Persiraja and 1.17 for Sumsel, totaling 2.67 goals per match. Seasonally Persiraja scores 1.91 and concedes 0.91, while Sumsel scores 1.27 and concedes 1.45; Persiraja also has a higher xG (1.34 vs 1.32), more shots on target (5.09 vs 4.6) and better conversion rate (20% vs 14%). Based on a Poisson model with an expected 2.67 goals, the probability of Over 1.5 goals is about 74.6% (≈75%), Over 2.5 about 49.9% (≈50%) and Over 3.5 about 27.8% (≈28%); these values align with seasonal rates: Persiraja has 82% of matches >1.5, Sumsel 73%, while Over 2.5 is 64% and 45% respectively. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Persiraja averages 2.0 goals, Sumsel 1.4, and combined Over 2.5 in the last 5 is 60% for both sides, which slightly increases the chance of Over 2.5 to ~52% versus the raw model. As a result the strongest signal from the data is backing Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side: Over) with an implied probability of around 75%, because the combined expected total of 2.67 and seasonal 82%/73% for >1.5 strongly support at least two goals.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a home win. Hosts draw at the break in 55% of matches, lead at half-time in 27% and trail in 18%, while winning 73% of all games, which strongly supports a final victory. In the second half the hosts average 1.18 goals (visitors 0.64) and score after the break in 91% of matches; in the last five games they scored after half-time in 100% of matches, which explains the conversion of an HT draw into an FT win. Additionally, the hosts’ xG is 1.34 versus 1.32 for the visitors, but the hosts concede only 1.02 xG against compared to 1.66 xG conceded by the visitors and have better shot efficiency (20% vs 14%), boosting their chances in the second half; a 55% probability of a draw at half-time with an estimated 75% conversion to a win yields roughly a 41% probability for the X/1 scenario.