Persis Solo vs Dewa United: match statistics

I back '2' — an away win for Dewa United. The visitors are in clearly better form: in the last 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 draw, scored 11 and conceded 3 (averaging 2.6 points per match), while Persis in that period have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (4 scored, 12 conceded; 0.8 points per match). Over the season Dewa have 16 wins and 44 goals and sit 4th, while Persis have 6 wins and 35 goals in 16th place, which confirms the visitors’ superiority. Home statistics show Persis creates more chances (13.31 shots and 5 on target on average, xG 1.60) and only fail to score in 25% of home games, but they concede 1.69 goals at home on average and have just 13% clean sheets, whereas Dewa away have xG 1.41, 11.56 shots per game and concede only 1.06 goals with 31% clean sheets. Given the significantly better form, more stable defense (1.06 vs 1.69 conceded per match) and the advantage in season wins, Dewa United are the favorites.

I back BTTS - Yes based on form and statistics: Dewa have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 per match), while Persis have conceded 12 in that period (2.4 per match). Seasonally Persis average 1.5 goals at home and have 50% of matches with both teams scoring, whereas Dewa average 1.25 goals away and have a seasonal BTTS of 38%, with a league BTTS rate of 52%. xG indicates Persis generate 1.54 xG versus Dewa's 1.41, and xG against are 1.35 and 1.29 respectively, with shots on target 4.44 vs 4.13 — both teams create clear chances. Against BTTS speaks Persis’s poor finishing in the last 5 (only 4 goals, 0.8 per match), but Persis’s high goals conceded this season (58 conceded vs 35 scored) increases the likelihood Dewa will score. I therefore select 'Yes' (BTTS) with an estimated probability of 66%.

Projected xG are 1.42 for Persis (attack 1.54 vs. Dewa’s average xG conceded 1.29) and 1.38 for Dewa (attack 1.41 vs. Persis’s average xG conceded 1.35), totaling 2.80 expected goals. Poisson calculations at a mean of 2.80 show probability of at least 2 goals (over 1.5) ≈76.9% (P(0)=0.0608, P(1)=0.1703 → sum 23.1%), over 2.5 ≈53.1%, and over 3.5 ≈30.8%. Seasonally Persis have had over 1.5 in 69% of matches, Dewa in 75%, and in the last 5 rounds Dewa scored 11 goals (2.2 avg) while Persis conceded 12 goals (2.4 avg), reinforcing a higher-scoring scenario. Additionally Persis average 4.44 on-target shots per match and Dewa 4.13, confirming both teams’ goal potential. Given these data, the strongest and most reliable pick is over 1.5 (77%); the 2.5 line leans moderately to over (53%), while 3.5 favors under (69%).

Seasonal figures show Persis led at the break in 8 of 16 matches (50%) and has a first-half goals average of 0.94 versus Dewa’s 0.44, with 21 goals for Persis before halftime compared to 16 for the visitors, indicating a clear home advantage in the first half. However, Dewa is stronger after the break: they average 0.81 goals in the second half versus Persis’s 0.56, and Persis concedes an average of 0.75 goals after the break compared to 0.5 for Dewa, which favors opponents’ turnarounds. Recent form amplifies this picture — Dewa have won 4 of their last 5 matches (80% wins) while Persis have only 1 win in five (20%), and Dewa have won 60% of second halves in their last 5 games versus 0% for Persis. Therefore the most likely scenario is Persis leading at Half-Time (given the 50% leads and 0.94 first-half goals) and Dewa staging a comeback in the second half (0.81 second-half goals average and strong form), hence the HT/FT pick 1/2.