Persita vs Arema: match statistics

Persita has a clear defensive advantage: at home they concede 0.69 goals per match on average, while Arema concedes 1.31 away; in the last five matches Persita has conceded 6 goals, Arema as many as 12. In attack the hosts score 1.69 goals at home on average with an average xG of 1.51, while Arema scores 1.15 away with xG 1.37, indicating slightly higher quality of chances created by Persita; additionally Persita’s conversion rate is 14% versus Arema’s 10%. Recent form over the last five matches also favors the hosts — Persita averages 1.2 points per game in this run (record 2 wins/3 losses), Arema 0.4 points (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). Persita’s home metrics are strong: 62% home wins and 38% clean sheets at home, versus 23% away wins and only 15% clean sheets for Arema. Considering the superior defense (0.69 vs 1.31 conceded per match), the xG advantage (1.51 vs 1.37) and markedly better form (1.2 vs 0.4 pts in the last 5), I predict a home victory.

Both teams show strong seasonal BTTS indicators: Persita 77% and Arema 69%, versus a league average of 55%, which increases the likelihood of BTTS - Yes. In the last 5 matches the picture is mixed — Persita has BTTS 40% while Arema 100% — with Arema conceding 12 goals in those 5 matches (2.4 per game) and Persita 6 goals (1.2 per game), suggesting vulnerability to conceding. In attack Persita averages 1.69 goals with xG 1.50, 4.54 shots on target and a conversion rate of 14%, and Arema 1.15 with xG 1.37, 4.00 shots on target and a 10% conversion, meaning both create genuine scoring opportunities. Clean sheet expected is rare (15% for each team), and Persita has 77% of matches over 2.5 goals and 69% of matches combining over 2.5 with BTTS, so the BTTS scenario is the strongest.

Both teams have a very high percentage of matches over 1.5 goals: Persita 85% and Arema 85%. Confronting attacks with defenses (Persita attack xG 1.50 vs Arema defense 1.68; Arema attack xG 1.37 vs Persita defense 1.34) yields expected ~1.59 goals for the home side and ~1.36 for the visitors, total ~2.95 xG. Additionally, a high rate of BTTS – Persita 77% and Arema 69% – and the fact Arema conceded 12 goals in their last 5 matches increase the likelihood of further goals. Persita averages 12.08 shots with a conversion rate of 14% (versus Arema 11.77 and 10%), and Persita scores on average 1.69 goals at home, raising the chance of at least one home goal. In light of these figures the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (selection: over at the 1.5 line), with estimated probabilities Over 1.5 ~90% and Over 2.5 ~62%.

Persita has the edge in half-time statistics: they led at the break in 38% of matches and score an average of 0.62 goals by half-time versus Arema’s 0.31, while Arema led at the break in only 23% of fixtures. Over the full match Persita also scores more on average (1.69 vs 1.15) and records a higher xG (1.50 vs 1.37), whereas Arema concedes 1.68 xG on average, indicating greater vulnerability to conceding. Additionally, both teams score frequently — both teams scored in 77% of Persita’s matches and in 69% of Arema’s matches — and Persita registers more shots on target (4.54 vs 4.0), which supports the concept of them maintaining a lead after the break. Based on this, the most likely scenario is Persita leading at half-time and winning at full-time: the 1/1 outcome is assessed at 25% (the highest single signal), while half-time draw/full-time draw (X/X) is given 17%, and 1/X is 8%. The risk of a turnaround stems from Arema’s form in the last five matches, where they were trailing at half-time in 60% of games, but this does not outweigh Persita’s numerical advantage in key indicators.