Perth Glory FC vs Macarthur: match statistics

Macarthur holds a small but meaningful edge: they sit 7th versus Perth’s 11th and have 8 wins this season compared to the hosts’ 6. In attack the visitors average 1.18 goals away versus the hosts’ 1.00 at home, and their average xG is 1.57 vs 1.51, indicating higher quality chances created by Macarthur. Defensively both teams are prone to mistakes — Perth concedes 1.27 goals at home, Macarthur 1.45 away, and in the last 5 matches the visitors have let in 14 goals versus 8 for Perth, which undermines confidence in Macarthur’s defense. Perth maintains slightly higher possession (49% vs 46%) and more shots on target at home (4.36 vs 4.09), and the hosts have earned only 0.8 points in the last 5 matches versus 1.2 for the visitors. Considering Macarthur’s higher away win rate (36% vs Perth’s 27%) and better shot conversion (8% vs 7%), I give a higher probability to a Macarthur win, although a draw remains realistic.

Perth has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% and Macarthur 55%, yielding a team-average of about 61% versus the league rate of 60%, already favoring a both-teams-to-score scenario. In the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 80% each, with Macarthur conceding on average 2.8 goals per match in this period and Perth 1.6, which significantly raises the likelihood of an opponent goal. The xG for both sides is similar: Perth 1.55 xG and Macarthur 1.57 xG, while xG against is 1.53 and 1.59 respectively, so both create and allow roughly 1.5 xG per match. Clean sheets are rare — Perth 8% and Macarthur 18% on the season — which further supports BTTS. Based on this I rate BTTS 'Yes' at 72% (vs 28%) as the strongest signal derived from form, xG and low clean sheet percentages.

The combined projected xG for the match is approximately 3.12 (1.57 for Perth Glory and 1.55 for Macarthur), which is above the league average of 2.85 and indicates a higher-than-average scoring potential. From a Poisson distribution with λ=3.12 there is ~82% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~60% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~38% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5). Supporting the Over are BTTS figures: 67% of Perth’s matches end with both teams scoring and 55% for Macarthur, low clean-sheet rates (8% and 18%) and high shot counts 13.42 vs 14.55 with attacking xG 1.55/1.57. Perth has 67% of season matches Over 2.5 (Macarthur 27%), but in the last 5 matches Macarthur has 100% Over 2.5 and average xG 1.64 with 14 goals conceded, which further raises the chance of at least 3 goals. Therefore I recommend the Over side on the 2.5 line as the strongest signal with an estimated probability of around 60%.

The most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a home win at Full-Time (X/1) — I assess it at 24%. The home side were level at the break in 42% of matches and the visitors in 45%, indicating a high incidence of HT draws. In the second half Perth Glory’s advantage is clear: the home team’s average goals after the break is 0.92 versus 0.55 for Macarthur, and the percentage of matches in which the home side scores at least once after the break is 92% compared to 73% for the visitors. Additionally, Perth scored 9 goals in the 61–75 minute window while Macarthur scored only 2, suggesting greater home efficiency in the decisive phase of the match. With very similar xG (1.55 vs 1.57) and comparable season win rates (33% for the home side vs 36% for the visitors), it is logical that an HT draw often turns into a Perth victory in the second half, hence the X/1 selection.