Philadelphia Union II vs Connecticut United: match statistics

Connecticut United are in clearly better recent form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals and averaging 2.4 points per game, while Philadelphia Union II have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, scoring 7 goals. The visitors are significantly more dangerous offensively away from home, averaging 2.10 goals with an xG of 1.81, compared with the hosts’ 1.18 goals and xG of 1.42 at home. Connecticut’s advantage is also evident in chance creation: they average 14.4 shots and 6.5 shots on target per match, while Philadelphia average 11.36 and 4.73, respectively. The hosts may exploit the weakness of their opponents’ defense, as the visitors concede 1.90 goals per away match and have kept no clean sheets, although they themselves have conceded as many as 11 goals in their last five matches. With the visitors’ conversion rate standing at 15%, compared with Philadelphia’s 10%, an away win for Connecticut United is the more likely outcome.

The signal for goals from both sides is very strong: BTTS occurred in 75% of Philadelphia Union II matches and as many as 90% of Connecticut United games, compared with the league average of 61%. Connecticut United have kept no clean sheets, conceding an average of 1.90 goals per match, while the hosts score an average of 1.83 goals. Philadelphia Union II also have defensive problems, conceding 2.2 goals per game in their last 5 matches, with an xG against of 2.04, while the visitors scored 2.4 goals per game over this period. Both teams regularly create chances, averaging 5.75 and 6.5 shots on target, as well as xG figures of 1.62 and 1.81, respectively. In addition, Connecticut United’s last five matches produced BTTS in 100% of cases, making it more likely that each team will score at least one goal.

Both teams regularly feature in matches with at least 2 goals: this occurred in 92% of Philadelphia Union II’s games and in every match involving Connecticut United. Connecticut score an average of 2.10 goals per game, while the hosts concede 1.67; furthermore, Philadelphia have conceded as many as 2.20 goals per match over their last five fixtures. The chance profile also points towards goals, with average xG of 1.62 for the hosts and 1.81 for the visitors, while Connecticut average 6.50 shots on target. Over 2.5 goals landed in 83% of Philadelphia’s matches and 90% of Connecticut’s, but the Over 1.5 goals line offers an even stronger edge and the highest level of safety. An additional argument is that both teams have scored and conceded in a high percentage of their matches, while Connecticut have failed to keep a single clean sheet.

Connecticut United are showing clearly stronger current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.4 goals scored and only 1.6 conceded, while Philadelphia Union II have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. The visitors also have higher average xG, 1.81 compared with 1.62, and register an average of 6.5 shots on target per match versus 5.75 for the hosts. Across the season, Connecticut have held a lead at the break in 40% of their matches, more than twice as often as Philadelphia, who were ahead at half-time in 18% of games. After the break, the visitors average 1.2 goals, and in 90% of their matches the second half produced at least 2 goals, supporting the scenario of them maintaining or extending their lead. Philadelphia have kept no clean sheets in their last 5 matches, making a Connecticut lead at half-time followed by a win at the final whistle the most likely HT/FT outcome.