Philadelphia Union vs Montreal Impact: match statistics

Philadelphia Union have a clear home advantage: they average 1.94 xG per match, while Montreal allow opponents 1.61 xG away from home. The hosts record 17.2 shots per game at home compared with Montreal’s 12.55 on the road, and their defense concedes only 1.1 goals per match. Montreal have lost 73% of their away games and concede as many as 3 goals on average in those matches, while keeping a clean sheet in just 9% of them. Current form also favors Union, who have collected 8 points and scored 9 goals in their last five matches, compared with the visitors’ 6 points and 13 goals conceded. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as Philadelphia draw 40% of their home matches, but the hosts’ superior chance creation and Montreal’s weakness away from home point towards a home win.

The signal for goals from both sides is strengthened by current form: Philadelphia recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Montreal did so in a full 100%. Both teams score regularly, averaging 1.8 and 1.6 goals per game respectively during this period, with xG of 1.62 and 1.80. Montreal’s defensive weakness is crucial: they conceded 13 goals in their last 5 appearances, or 2.6 per match, and have kept a clean sheet in only 9% of their games this season. Philadelphia defend significantly better, but Montreal produce 4.73 shots on target per match and should take advantage of the fact that the hosts have conceded in 73% of their league games. Both teams’ season-long BTTS rates stand at 55%, but their highly attacking recent results increase the likelihood of a scenario in which each side finds the net.

Philadelphia create chances at home with an average xG of 1.66, while Montreal concede an average of 3.00 goals and 1.61 xG away from home. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored 1.8 goals per game, whereas Montreal have conceded as many as 2.6 goals per match, clearly increasing the hosts’ scoring potential. The visitors are also capable of responding, as their recent average xG stands at 1.80, compared with the 1.15 xG Philadelphia have recently allowed. At least two goals have been scored in 73% of Philadelphia’s matches and in as many as 91% of Montreal’s games, while MLS averages 3.2 goals per match. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the data from both teams strongly supports surpassing this low line, even in a less efficient scenario.

Philadelphia have a clear advantage in full-match results, averaging 1.27 points per game compared with Montreal’s 0.64, while the hosts’ opponents concede as many as 3.00 goals on average. Philadelphia led at the break in 36% of matches, whereas Montreal were trailing at half-time in 64% of their games and conceded an average of 1.27 goals in the first half. Philadelphia defend far more reliably before the break, allowing just 0.45 goals per game and keeping a clean sheet in 64% of first halves. The hosts’ advantage should persist after the interval, as Montreal continue to concede an average of 1.73 goals, while in their last five matches they allowed opponents to score 1.40 goals after half-time. The HT/FT scenario of Philadelphia leading at the break and winning at the final whistle is therefore best supported by the difference in defensive quality between the two teams and Montreal’s poor away stability.