Phoenix Rising vs Indy Eleven: match statistics

Phoenix Rising have a clear home advantage: they win 40% of their home matches and score an average of 1.8 goals in them, while Indy Eleven score just 0.67 goals per away match. The hosts also create better chances, averaging 1.87 xG and 6.6 shots on target, compared with 1.42 xG and 3.67 shots on target for the visitors. Indy Eleven have failed to score in as many as 56% of their away matches, while also losing 67% of those fixtures and conceding an average of 1.56 goals. Phoenix’s recent form has been cautious, with 1 win and 3 draws in their last five matches, but the team conceded just 5 goals during that run. Indy have a slightly better points record over the last five rounds, but their poor finishing and highly unfavorable away numbers point to a home win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Indy Eleven’s poor attacking efficiency away from home: the team averages only 0.67 goals and fails to score in 56% of such matches. Phoenix Rising are clearly more dangerous offensively, averaging 1.70 goals and 1.73 xG per match, while Indy concede an average of 1.56 goals, giving the hosts a solid foundation to find the net. At the same time, Phoenix concede just 0.80 goals per home match, further reducing the visitors’ chances of breaking through. The last five matches have produced 60% BTTS - Yes outcomes for both teams, and Indy recorded 1.71 xG during this period; however, the visitors’ full-season BTTS rate of only 33% and their frequent matches without scoring outweigh these factors in favor of a scenario where at least one team fails to score.

Phoenix Rising score an average of 1.70 goals at home, while Indy Eleven concede 1.56 away from home, giving the hosts clear potential to score around 1.6 goals. The visitors score just 0.67 goals per away match and have failed to score in 56% of such games, although their average xG stands at 1.42 compared with the 1.62 xG allowed by Phoenix. Across their last five matches, the two teams averaged a combined 2.2 goals per game, with matches featuring at least three goals occurring in 40% of cases for each side. At the same time, 80% of Phoenix matches and 67% of Indy matches ended with no more than three goals. The projected total of 2.60 goals indicates limited risk of a very open game, making Under 3.5 the strongest value pick.

Phoenix Rising have a clear advantage over the full season: they win 70% of their matches and average 2.3 points per game, while Indy Eleven win just 11% of their matches and average 0.56 points. The hosts score an average of 1.70 goals, while the visitors concede 1.56, with Indy scoring just 0.67 goals per match and failing to find the net in as many as 56% of their games. The signal for Phoenix to lead at the break is strong, as the hosts were ahead at half-time in 60% of their matches, while Indy have never gone into half-time with the lead and were behind in this phase in 56% of cases. Phoenix’s last five matches more often produced a draw at half-time, occurring in 80% of cases, so the X/1 scenario remains a close alternative; however, the hosts’ superior quality and their average of 1.1 goals after the break primarily support the 1/1 outcome.