Picerno vs Cosenza: match statistics

Cosenza are the clear favorite: the visitors sit 3rd in the table while Picerno are 16th, with a goal differential of 55–39 in Cosenza’s favor. In the last 5 matches Cosenza scored 7 goals and won 3 games (3-1-1), averaging 2.0 points per match, whereas Picerno have 4 goals and only 1 win in that period (avg. 1.0 point). Picerno’s home stats show 1.12 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game, while Cosenza away average 1.06 scored and 1.12 conceded, so defensive figures are very similar, but season-long efficiency favors the visitors. xG values are also comparable (xG Picerno 1.34 vs 1.26 for Cosenza, with xG against 1.39 vs 1.41) and shots on target are close (3.41 vs 3.53), indicating few clear chances; additionally both teams fail to score in 29% of matches. Taking into account the higher league position, greater number of goals scored (55 vs 39) and better points-average over the last 5 games, I tip a Cosenza victory, although the high draw rate (53% for both sides) increases the likelihood of a shared point.

Both teams show a high BTTS rate this season: Picerno 56% and Cosenza 59%, and both 60% in the last 5 matches, a strong, consistent signal that both sides regularly score. Picerno averages 2.06 goals scored per season and generates xG 1.56 with 5.11 shots on target and 16% conversion, while Cosenza has xG against 1.41 and concedes 1.12 goals per season — this suggests the home side has genuine scoring capability. Cosenza averages 1.4 goals in the last 5 matches (1.06 seasonally), and Picerno concedes 1.2 goals in that period, increasing the visitors’ chance to score. Additionally, low clean sheet rates of 33% and 29% (Picerno/Cosenza) versus the league 57% and a league average of 2.47 goals per match support a Goal/Goal scenario. Based on this, I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 72% versus 28% for No Goal.

Picerno at home scores an average of 2.06 goals per match with an xG of 1.56, while Cosenza away averages 1.06 goals with an xG of 1.26. Treating expected goals as the average of the offensive xG and the opponent's xG yields ~1.49 for Picerno (1.56 vs 1.41) and ~1.23 for Cosenza (1.26 vs 1.21), totaling ~2.72 goals. With a combined lambda ≈2.72 the Poisson model gives probability of Over 1.5 ≈75% and Over 2.5 ≈51%, while Over 3.5 is only ≈29%. This is supported by historical rates: over 1.5 occurs for hosts in 78% of matches and for visitors in 71%, and over 2.5 respectively in 67% and 41%; both teams scored in 56–59% of games. As a result the strongest signal is the Over 1.5 bet (over) with an edge 75% vs 25%; Over 2.5 remains only marginally favored.

Picerno has a clear seasonal advantage: 78% home wins, averaging 2.06 goals per game versus Cosenza’s 1.06, higher xG 1.56 vs 1.26 and more shots on target 5.11 vs 3.53. At half-time the hosts led in 7 matches (39%) and were level in 8 (44%), while in the second half they score on average 1.44 goals versus Cosenza’s 0.53, which demonstrates their strength after the break. Picerno wins second halves in 61% of cases and has a higher shot conversion rate 16% vs 10%, so if they take a lead before half-time they often hold it until the end. Cosenza are more frequently level at half-time (53% HT draws as the away side) and concede many goals in the closing stages of the first half (8 goals in minutes 31–45), so the likelihood of a turnaround is lower. On this basis the most certain scenario is Picerno leading at half-time and winning after 90 minutes (1/1 — 34%), alternatively a draw at half-time followed by a home win (X/1 — 26%).