Pogoń Szczecin II vs Lech Poznań II: match statistics

Lech Poznań II appears to be the favorite: they have 13 wins this season versus Pogoń II's 7 and a superior goal difference 55–38 compared to 45–57. In the last 5 matches Lech averages 1.6 points per game (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), while Pogoń has only 0.6 pts/game with a 1–0–4 record. Pogoń at home scores on average 2.54 goals with xG 1.6, 13.18 shots per match and a 16% conversion rate, but concedes 1.92 goals; Lech away posts 2.08 goals with xG 1.64, 12 shots and a better 19% conversion and concedes on average 1.62 goals. Season-long 38 goals conceded by Lech versus 57 by Pogoń and the better recent form (PPG 1.6 vs 0.6) favor the visitors, although the goal stats (average 4.46 at the hosts and 3.69 at the visitors) point to an open, high-scoring game.

The BTTS scenario is more likely: season BTTS rates are 79% for Pogoń II and 69% for Lech II, averaging 74% as a baseline for BTTS. In the last 5 matches there’s divergence: Pogoń shows 40% BTTS recently (scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 per match), while Lech is at 100% (scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4), so Lech is the more consistent scorer. xG also supports both teams as chance creators — xG_for 1.74 for the home side and 1.64 for the away in the season, with seasonal xG_against 1.22 and 1.48; additionally the hosts concede 1.72 xG over the last 5, increasing the risk of conceding. Low clean sheet rates of 14% and 15% and high season goal averages (2.0 and 2.08) plus over2.5 & BTTS combinations (56% and 69%) further argue for Goal/Goal, although Lech’s 23% of matches without scoring in the season slightly offsets this. On that basis I estimate BTTS probability at 76% for Yes and 24% for No, therefore I recommend: BTTS - Yes.

The model indicates 1.61 xG for Pogoń II and 1.43 xG for Lech II (total 3.04), suggesting an even but goal-prone matchup. Season stats show Pogoń home matches have a 100% Over 1.5 rate and Lech matches 77% — average 88.5%; a Poisson based on xG (3.04) yields ~80.7% probability for Over 1.5, so the compromise is 85%. For the 2.5 line, seasonal Over 2.5 is 64% for hosts and 69% for visitors (average 66.5%), although Poisson suggests ~58.6% — therefore I forecast Over 2.5 at 64%. Additional support: both teams have high BTTS rates (79% hosts, 69% guests), visitors average 6.0 shots on target vs 4.91 for hosts and have a higher conversion rate 19% vs 13%. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (85% vs 15%), hence I recommend betting Over 1.5.

The first half is likely to be even: in the last 5 matches the home side was level at the break in 60% of cases, and the overall rate of halftime draws is 23% for both teams. The second half favors Lech II — average goals in the second half are 2.38 for the visitors versus 1.85 for the hosts, average goals scored after the break 1.31 vs 1.08, and shots on target 6.0 vs 4.91 with conversion rates of 19% vs 13%. Lech also has a better average points at halftime (1.62 versus 1.38) and superior form over the last 5 matches (40% wins versus Pogoń’s 20%), which suggests that if the score is level at half-time there is a higher probability of an away win. Additionally, both teams rarely keep clean sheets (14% for the hosts, 15% for the visitors), and home matches end with both teams scoring in 79% of cases (69% for the visitors), so the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Lech II win after 90 minutes (X/2).