Police vs Marines: match statistics
Police vs Marines: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Police played against Marines in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The game was played on April 25, 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Recent form
Police has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.80 points per game. Marines has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 1.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Police scores 0.85 goals per game and allows 0.63. Marines scores 1.26 and allows 1.15. Games in this league average 2.05 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 37% of Police's games and 56% of Marines's. The Over 2.5 rates are 22% and 37%, compared with league averages of 44% for BTTS and 35% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Marines has the higher season xG average, 1.16 to 1.12 per game. Police takes 5.9 shots per game, while Marines takes 6.8.
First-half and second-half trends
Police leads at halftime in 33% of its games and scores 0.44 goals per game after halftime. Marines leads at halftime in 48% and scores 0.48 after halftime.
When the teams score
Police's most productive scoring window is minutes 16-30 (5 goals). For Marines, it is minutes 31-45+ (13 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
National Soccer League games average 2.05 goals. Both teams score in 44% of games, and 35% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Police hold a clear defensive edge at home — conceding only 0.71 goals per home match and boasting a +5 home goal difference, while Marines concede 1.36 goals per away match and have an away goal difference of -2. Offensively Marines look stronger on the season (34 goals vs Police’s 23) and average 1.21 goals away compared to the hosts’ 1.07 at home; their away xG is 1.30 vs the hosts’ xG 1.21, indicating a slight quality advantage in chances for the visitors. In the last 5 matches Police scored 4 and conceded 6, averaging 0.8 points per match, whereas Marines scored 7 and conceded 5, translating to 1.6 points per match; this improves the visitors’ prospects for an away result. Marines generate more shots on target (3.64 SoT per match vs 2.92 for the hosts), but Police have a higher conversion rate at home (17% vs 15%), so the visitors create more opportunities while the hosts are more efficient with fewer chances. Considering Police’s strong home defense and superior goal difference (+5 vs -2), I project a narrow home win, although Marines’ offensive activity and better form increase the probability of a draw.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have season BTTS rates of 54% (Police) and 57% (Marines), and in the last 5 matches BTTS was 60% for Police and 80% for Marines, strongly favoring a both-teams-to-score scenario. Marines generate more quality opportunities — season xG_for is 1.30 with an average of 1.21 goals scored, while Police have xG_for 0.99 with 1.31 goals per game, so the visitors create more chances and the hosts can be efficient in finishing. Defensively Police concede 0.92 goals per game season-wide and have 31% clean sheets, whereas Marines concede 1.36 and have only 21% clean sheets; in the last 5 matches Police conceded on average 1.2 and Marines 1.0, therefore both sides regularly allow the opponent to score. Additionally, Marines record 3.64 shots on target per game versus 2.18 for Police, and season total goals are Police 23 and Marines 34, which demonstrates both teams’ ability to find the net. Considering the season 54%/57%, recent 60%/80%, low clean sheet rates of 31% and 21%, and Marines’ advantage in shots on target at 3.64, I assess BTTS probability at 68% and recommend a BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG analysis shows Police has an attacking xG of 0.99 and Marines 1.30; xG conceded is 0.94 for Police and 1.30 for Marines, yielding expected goals of 1.15 for Police and 1.12 for Marines (total 2.27). A Poisson model with lambda=2.27 gives probability of Over 1.5 goals around 66%, Over 2.5 around 40% and Over 3.5 around 20%. Season data confirm a moderate tendency toward 2–3 goals: Police have Over 1.5 in 62% of matches, Marines in 79%, but Over 2.5 occurs only in 38% and 36% of cases, and Over 3.5 in just 23% and 14%. The share of matches where both teams scored is 54% for Police and 57% for Marines, so BTTS is possible but rarely translates into 4+ goals. As a result the strongest signal is Under 3.5 (about 80% chance) — this line offers the largest statistical edge versus alternatives (Over 1.5 ~66%, Over 2.5 ~40%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Police led at the break in 54% of their home matches (7 instances) and average 0.85 goals by half-time while conceding only 0.23, which is a strong indicator of a home lead after 45 minutes. Marines have a higher xG (1.30 vs 0.99 for Police) and a seasonal scoring average of 1.21 goals per match, but on the road they score only 0.71 by half-time and concede 0.50, so they are not favored to lead at half-time. Over full matches Police also perform better: seasonal goals per game 1.31 vs 1.21 for Marines, and the hosts average 1.69 points at home compared to 1.07 points away for Marines; additionally Police keep a clean sheet at half-time in 77% of home matches. Historically, a lead at the break translates into victory — Police average 1.92 points at the half and with 54% HT leads they frequently convert that into a win after 90 minutes. On that basis the most likely scenario is Police leading at half-time and maintaining the win (1/1), so I assign the highest probability to this outcome.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Police | Marines | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Marines is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / game - Police · 1.6 pts / game - Marines
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Marines is 48% better for: goals scored per game.
0.85 goals / game - Police · 1.26 goals / game - Marines
Police is 83% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.63 goals / game - Police · 1.15 goals / game - Marines
Police scores in 59% of games (16 of 27 meczów), while Marines keeps a clean sheet in 26% (7 of 27 meczów).
Marines scores in 81% of games (22 of 27 meczów), while Police keeps a clean sheet in 41% (11 of 27 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Police
Over / Under - Marines
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Marines is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.56 pts / game - Police · 1.78 pts / game - Marines
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Police - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 37%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Marines - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 48% of games and wins 37%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (13 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Police
Marines
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| Police | Liga | Marines | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 1.48 | 2.05 | ▲ 2.41 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 37% | 44% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 22% | 35% | ▲ 37% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 41% | 34% | ▼ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 48% | 60% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 69% | • 70% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- PoliceGoalHenry Msanga
Head-to-head
Record from Police's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Marines. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Police vs Marines?
The National Soccer League match finished Police 2:0 Marines. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Police vs Marines?
Police score 0.85 goals per game on average and Marines 1.26. The National Soccer League average is 2.05 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 35% of games. Both teams score in 37% of Police's matches and 56% of Marines's.
What form are Police and Marines in?
Over the last 5 games Police have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Marines 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Police vs Marines?
The statistical background for Police vs Marines — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.