Polonia Nysa vs Zagłębie Lubin II: match statistics

Zagłębie Lubin II have the stronger recent record: they have won 2 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.4 goals per game, while Polonia Nysa have won just once and scored 5 goals. During this period, the visitors averaged 1.2 points per game, twice as many as Polonia’s 0.6. In the current season, Zagłębie opened with a 1:0 victory, whereas Polonia lost their only match 0:3, which clearly gives the visitors an edge in terms of defensive organization as well. However, both teams conceded 11 goals in their last five matches, so the visitors’ defense does not guarantee a comfortable performance. Zagłębie’s advantage in finishing efficiency and recent results makes their victory the most likely outcome.

Recent form clearly supports goals at both ends: BTTS occurred in 60% of Polonia Nysa’s last five matches and in as many as 80% of Zagłębie Lubin II’s games. Both teams conceded 2.2 goals per match during this period, while scoring 1.0 and 1.4 goals respectively, pointing to open and vulnerable defenses. Their attacking potential is confirmed by average xG across their last five appearances, standing at 1.34 for the home side and 1.66 for the visitors. Polonia kept a clean sheet in its only available home match, but small seasonal samples are less reliable than the recent run, while the league BTTS average is 56%. Therefore, the most likely outcome is BTTS - Yes, with each team scoring at least one goal.

The latest form of both teams points to an open game: Polonia Nysa conceded an average of 2.2 goals in their last 5 matches, while Zagłębie Lubin II conceded exactly 2.2. During the same period, matches involving each team finished Over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases, with an average of 3.2 goals per Polonia game and 3.6 goals per Zagłębie game. The visitors have recently scored 1.4 goals per match, with an average xG of 1.66, while Polonia created chances worth 1.34 xG. Although the hosts’ very limited season data suggests some caution, the combination of weak defenses and high-scoring indicators from the last five matches gives a clear edge to Over 1.5.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Zagłębie Lubin II win, as the visitors were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches, while Polonia were trailing at that stage in 60% of games. In the first halves, neither team established much of an advantage: Polonia averaged 0.6 goals and Zagłębie 0.4, which supports an evenly balanced opening. After the break, the form advantage shifts to the visitors, who averaged 1.0 goal and won the second half in 60% of their last five matches, while Polonia scored just 0.4 goals and lost that period in 80% of cases. Across their last five appearances, the hosts conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match, the same as Zagłębie, but the visitors scored more goals—1.4 compared with 1.0. Although Polonia won their only match in the available home sample and recorded an xG of 1.95, their current run of four defeats in five matches and weak second-half performances clearly reduce the significance of this signal.