Polonia Warszawa vs Unia Skierniewice: match statistics

Polonia Warszawa is the favorite due to a higher league position (5th vs 14th) and a better run in the last 5 matches: 'wlwlw' — 3 wins and 2 losses versus Unia’s 'wwlll' — 2 wins and 3 losses. The home side average 1.8 points per match over the last 5 fixtures, while Unia have 1.2 points per match, confirming Polonia’s greater consistency. Offensively Unia scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches (1.8 per match) compared to Polonia’s 7 goals (1.4 per match), but Unia’s defense also conceded 9 goals (1.8 per match) versus 6 goals for the hosts (1.2 per match), so the visitors are more effective in attack while the hosts are more stable at the back. Considering the higher position, better points average and tighter defense over the last 5 games, I tip a home win; I assess the probabilities as 55% Polonia, 20% draw and 25% Unia. Lack of xG and shot-average data (values 0 in the provided stats) limits assessment of chance quality, so the forecast is based mainly on results and goal balance from the last 5 matches.

The last five matches clearly favor BTTS: Unia has 100% BTTS in the last 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding 9 (avg 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded), while Polonia has 60% BTTS in the last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6 (avg 1.4 and 1.2). xG over the last 5 matches shows both teams create chances – Polonia xG 1.97 vs Unia xG 1.82, with xG against 1.60 and 1.33 respectively, which suggests risk of goals from both sides. The league-wide seasonal BTTS rate is 56%, and Polonia’s seasonal data shows 100% BTTS, whereas Unia’s seasonal values include 0.0 and appear incomplete, so I place more weight on form from the last 5 matches. Considering Unia’s 100% BTTS in the last 5 and the recent scoring averages of 1.4 for Polonia and 1.8 for Unia, I assess the 'both teams to score' scenario as the strongest and assign it a 75% probability.

In the last 5 matches Polonia generated an average of 1.97 xG per game, Unia 1.82 xG, yielding a combined xG of 3.79; actual goal averages in this period are 1.4 (Polonia) and 1.8 (Unia), totaling 3.2 goals per game. Polonia’s seasonal home stats show 100% of matches over 1.5 and 2.5 (small sample), and the league averages 3.0 goals per game, so I rate Over 1.5 very highly (approx. 96%). In the last 5 matches the Over 2.5 rate is 60% for the home side and 100% for the away side, which combined with the 3.79 total xG boosts the probability of Over 2.5. Polonia averages 12 shots and 4 on target per home game with an 8% conversion, and Unia’s last 5 matches show 1.82 xG and 1.8 goals scored on average, supporting active chance creation. Based on this I estimate the probability of Over 2.5 at about 82% (Under 18%) and Over 3.5 at about 46% (Under 54%); therefore I recommend backing Over 2.5 as the strongest signal.

Seasonally Polonia was losing at half-time in 100% of matches and on average conceded 1.0 goal before the break, which strongly suggests Unia leading after 45 minutes. However, in the last 5 fixtures Polonia scores on average 1.0 goal after the break and concedes only 0.4, and in those second halves they averaged 1.8 points, demonstrating an ability to erase a lead. The hosts have xG 1.56 versus xG against 2.0 and generate on average 4.0 on-target shots and 12.0 shots per match, so they create real goal-scoring opportunities after the break. Unia’s season data are largely incomplete (average goals and shots = 0.0), and their form 'wwlll' and 40% win rate in the last 5 matches provide a less convincing signal of holding the lead. On this basis the safest pick is 2/1 — Unia leads at half-time, and Polonia completes the turnaround to win in regular time.