Port Vale vs Crewe Alexandra: match statistics

Crewe Alexandra sit 2nd, while Port Vale are 19th, and the visitors remain unbeaten in their last five matches, winning 3 and drawing 2. Port Vale have scored just 3 goals and conceded as many as 9 in their last five games, which stands in clear contrast to Crewe’s record of 5 goals scored and only 2 conceded. Away from home, Crewe create chances worth an average of 1.99 xG from 18 shots per match, compared with Port Vale’s 1.32 xG and 9 shots at home. The visitors won their only away match so far without conceding, while their defense has allowed an average of 0 goals in those games, giving them a clear edge despite Port Vale having drawn their only home fixture. A controlled Crewe victory is the most likely outcome, although the hosts retain a chance of drawing thanks to averaging 4 shots on target at home.

The BTTS pick is not stronger because both teams have recorded 0% of matches with goals scored by both sides this season, while each has kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games. Port Vale have averaged only 0.6 goals scored over their last 5 matches, and their season xG is just 0.87, limiting the hosts’ chances of beating a well-organized Crewe defense. Crewe have conceded only 0.4 goals per game across their last five outings, allowing just 2 goals in total, although the average xG against them of 1.53 gives Port Vale some hope. The visitors look more dangerous in attack, averaging 18 shots and 5 on target compared with Port Vale’s 6 and 3, respectively. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that Crewe score, but at least one team fails to find the net. Both teams’ latest BTTS rates stand at 40%, below the league average of 46%, further supporting the BTTS - No scenario.

Port Vale’s last five matches produced an average of 2.4 goals, but the team scored only 0.6 goals per game, while Crewe conceded just 0.4. Crewe are in better form, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, although their last five matches averaged only 1.4 goals in total. During this period, the Over 2.5 goals line landed in 40% of Port Vale’s matches and just 20% of Crewe’s, while the league average stands at 2.42 goals. The visitors’ greater attacking potential, reflected in 18 shots and 5 shots on target per game compared with Port Vale’s 6 and 3, should raise the expected goal total to 2.35, but does not point to a scenario with at least four goals. The strongest edge therefore lies with Under 3.5 goals, supported by the hosts’ limited attacking efficiency and Crewe’s very solid recent defensive record.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Crewe win, as the visitors were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, conceding just 0.2 goals per game in those fixtures. Over the same period, Port Vale lost 3 of 5 matches, scored only 0.6 goals per game and conceded an average of 1.8. After the break, Crewe scored an average of 0.8 goals and suffered no defeats in their last 5 matches, while the hosts failed to score in any second half and lost those halves in 80% of cases. The visitors also hold a clear advantage in chance creation: their average xG is 1.99 compared with Port Vale’s 0.87, while their average number of shots on target is 5 to 3. The expectation of an initially cautious game is supported by the fact that both teams drew at half-time in 100% of the available sample of their matches this season, but Crewe’s superior form should decide the game after the interval.