Port Vale vs Rochdale: match statistics

Despite sitting 22nd in the table, Port Vale have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while 17th-placed Rochdale have failed to win during that period and have conceded as many as 16 goals. At home, the hosts have won 60% of their matches and kept a clean sheet in 80%, while the visitors have lost half of their away games and concede an average of 1.5 goals. Port Vale create chances at home worth an average xG of 1.38, compared with Rochdale’s 1.08 away from home, while the hosts’ defense allows an xG of 1.09, against 1.76 for the visitors’ defense. However, Port Vale score just 0.8 goals per home match, so despite their advantage and Rochdale’s recent defensive struggles, a narrow win looks more likely than a high-scoring result.

The strongest signal points to Rochdale failing to score: they average 0.83 goals away from home and draw a blank in 50% of matches. Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 43% of their home games and have conceded an average of just 0.6 goals over their last 5 matches. A home goal looks more likely, as Rochdale have conceded 16 goals in their last 5 matches, an average of 3.2 per game. The risk to the BTTS - No pick is that Port Vale concede an average of 1.86 goals at home; however, both teams score in only 43% of their matches, compared with 50% of Rochdale’s away games. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that at least one team fails to score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 86% of Port Vale matches and 67% of Rochdale matches. The hosts average 1.43 goals scored, while the visitors concede 1.50; moreover, Rochdale have conceded as many as 16 goals in their last five matches, or 3.2 per game. The visitors’ attacking potential is less convincing, as they average 0.83 goals and have failed to score in 50% of their matches, while Port Vale have conceded just 0.6 goals per game across their last five. Therefore, the 2.55-goal projection supports Over 1.5, but the signal is weaker at the higher 2.5 line: none of Port Vale’s last five matches featured at least three goals.

The strongest scenario is Port Vale leading at the break and winning after 90 minutes: the hosts were ahead at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Rochdale were trailing at that stage in 4 of 5. Over this period, Port Vale conceded an average of 0.2 goals before half-time, whereas Rochdale conceded 1.6 and scored just 0.2. The hosts’ advantage also carried through to the final results: they won 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 0.6 goals, while the visitors failed to win any and conceded 3.2. This supports the likelihood of the hosts holding on to a potential lead, although similar xG figures across the period—1.06 for Port Vale and 1.08 for Rochdale—mean this HT/FT pick should not be considered a certainty.