Portimonense vs CD Tondela: match statistics

Portimonense have a clear home advantage: they have won 50% of their home fixtures, while CD Tondela have lost both away matches and failed to score in either. The hosts average 1.0 goals at home with an xG of 1.20, while the visitors, despite an away xG of 1.43, have still failed to score in 100% of their away matches and have a shot-conversion rate of 0%. Portimonense’s defense concedes an average of 1.05 xG and keeps a clean sheet in 50% of their home appearances, whereas Tondela concede an average of 1.5 goals and 1.25 xG away from home. Both teams have a similar record over their last five matches, with 2 wins each, but Portimonense have collected 7 points in that period compared with their opponents’ 6. A controlled home victory is therefore the most likely outcome, although the fact that Portimonense have failed to score in 50% of their home matches increases the draw risk.

The strongest signal is Tondela’s very limited scoring output: in away data, they have not scored a single goal yet, with 0% of matches featuring a goal scored and 0% BTTS. Portimonense concede an average of just 1.00 goal per match, while their average xG against stands at 0.99, further reducing the visitors’ chances of breaking through. In the last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in only 20% of cases, with the hosts averaging 0.8 goals scored and the visitors 1.0. Although Tondela generate a respectable 1.43 xG per match, they average only 2.0 shots on target, and their current conversion rate is 0%, meaning their potential is not translating into goals. BTTS - No is clearly more likely, as the most realistic scenario remains one in which at least one team, primarily the visitors, fails to score.

Portimonense have averaged just 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five matches, with none of those games going over 2.5 goals. Tondela have averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in their last five appearances, with both teams scoring in only 20% of matches. Season xG suggests some attacking potential, standing at 1.46 for the home side and 1.43 for the visitors; however, the visitors’ current finishing has been poor: they have failed to score in the available away data, while the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches. Both teams have recorded 100% of matches under 3.5 goals in the available season sample, while Portugal’s LigaPro averages just 2.34 goals per game. The projected total of 2.25 goals therefore clearly points to value on Under 3.5 goals.

Portimonense has a clear advantage in the home data: they have won 67% of their matches, scoring an average of 1.67 goals and conceding just 1.00, while Tondela have lost all of their away matches and failed to score in any of them. The hosts were leading at the break in 2 of 3 home games, averaging 1.00 goal scored before half-time, whereas the visitors were level at half-time in both of their away appearances so far and did not concede a goal. Portimonense’s superiority is also evident in the quality of chances: their xG stands at 1.46, compared with 0.99 xG conceded, while Tondela, despite recording an xG of 1.43, have failed to convert it into a single goal. After the break, the visitors concede an average of 1.50 goals without scoring any, further supporting the scenario in which the hosts maintain or extend their lead. Therefore, the most likely outcome remains an HT/FT scenario in which Portimonense take the lead before half-time and win the match overall.