Portland Hearts of Pine vs Alta: match statistics

Portland Hearts of Pine have the stronger home advantage: they average 1.50 goals at home, while Alta score just 1.00 per away match and fail to score in 42% of such fixtures. The hosts also create slightly more quality chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.63 compared with 1.34 for the visitors, and they average 13.75 shots to Alta’s 11.17. Alta’s away defense concedes an average of 1.83 goals and allows opponents an xG of 1.84, clearly more than Portland concede at home (1.50 goals and 1.66 xG). Both teams are in poor current form, having each won just once and conceded 10 goals in their last five matches, but Alta have lost as many as 4 of those 5 fixtures. Portland’s home record is only moderate, however, with a 33% win rate and just 8% clean sheets, so a narrow home victory is the most likely outcome, although a draw remains a realistic possibility.

BTTS - Yes is the most likely outcome, as both teams’ season-long figures are close to the league’s high average: Portland stands at 57% and Alta at 58%, compared with the league level of 59%. Portland averages 1.57 goals scored, while Alta concedes as many as 1.83, and the home side has scored in every match featuring BTTS across its last five games. The visitors’ chances of finding the net are further strengthened by the fact that Portland conceded 10 goals in its last five matches, or 2.0 per game, while its average xG against was a high 2.19. Alta’s current BTTS efficiency is weaker, at just 40% across its last five appearances, but the opposition has allowed plenty of chances, and the visitors have generated an average of 1.20 xG. A Goal/Goal scenario is therefore slightly stronger than the alternative in which at least one team fails to score.

Portland average 1.57 goals per match, while Alta concede as many as 1.83, clearly strengthening the hosts’ attacking potential. The chance-quality metrics confirm this: Portland’s average xG stands at 1.65, while Alta allow opponents 1.84 xG. In their last five matches, both teams conceded 2.0 goals per game, with matches featuring at least three goals occurring in 60% of Portland’s games and as many as 80% of Alta’s. However, the Over 1.5 goals line has the strongest support in the season data, having been covered in 79% of Portland’s matches and 67% of Alta’s. The projected total of 2.96 goals indicates that two goals are clearly more likely than a low-scoring outcome.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Portland were level at the break in 43% of their matches, compared with 45% for Alta. The opening stages are usually cautious: the hosts average 0.86 goals scored and 0.57 conceded before half-time, while the visitors score just 0.36 goals. After the interval, Portland’s advantage should grow, as the hosts average 1.57 goals per match over the season, while Alta concede as many as 1.83 goals per away game. Portland also have the higher attacking xG, 1.65 versus 1.34, and average 4.86 shots on target compared with their opponents’ 4.00. The hosts’ eventual victory is further supported by the fact that Alta have lost 58% of their matches this season and 80% of their last five, making the X/1 scenario the strongest HT/FT selection.