Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City: match statistics

Portland Timbers are significantly more effective at home, where they average 2.18 goals per match, while St. Louis City score just 1.09 goals away from home. The hosts win 55% of their home fixtures and have not been held scoreless, whereas the visitors win only 27% of their away matches and fail to score in 27% of away games. Portland also create more in the final third: they average 13.09 shots and 5.09 shots on target per match, compared with 12.36 and 3.91 for St. Louis. However, the visitors are unbeaten in their last five matches, drawing three of them, so their current stability, combined with Portland conceding an average of 1.64 goals at home, increases the likelihood of a closely contested game. Nevertheless, home advantage and the Timbers’ much greater attacking consistency point to a narrow victory for the hosts.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as BTTS has occurred in 73% of Portland’s matches and 64% of St. Louis’ matches this season, compared with the league average of 62%. Both teams are on a five-match BTTS streak, scoring an average of 1.8 and 2.0 goals respectively during this period, while conceding 1.4 goals each. Portland scores an average of 1.91 goals at home, while St. Louis averages 1.09 goals per match, with the visitors failing to score in only 9% of their games. The defenses provide little basis for expecting clean sheets: the hosts have kept one in 18% of matches, and the visitors in just 9%, with xG against figures of 1.18 and 1.45. Portland should consistently create chances, averaging 1.76 xG and 5.09 shots on target, while St. Louis’ strong recent finishing increases the likelihood of a goal from the visitors. Therefore, the BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal market is the preferred selection, rather than BTTS - No, which means that at least one team fails to score—it does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Portland score an average of 1.91 goals at home, while St. Louis concede 1.45 goals away, clearly supporting a goal-scoring scenario for the hosts. The xG model also points to opportunities: Portland generate an average of 1.76 xG, while the visitors record 1.36 xG, with Portland’s defense allowing opponents 1.18 xG. In their last five matches, both teams scored an average of 1.8 and 2.0 goals per game respectively, and each had both teams scoring in 100% of those matches. At least 2 goals were scored in 82% of Portland’s matches and as many as 91% of St. Louis’ games, making Over 1.5 goals by far the strongest data-backed option. The 2.5 line remains realistic, but St. Louis have recorded Over 2.5 goals in only 27% of their away matches this season, so Over 1.5 offers the safer edge.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Portland win, as the hosts average 1.91 goals per match compared with St. Louis’s 1.09 and have the higher xG: 1.76 versus the visitors’ 1.36. The first half could nevertheless be closely contested: St. Louis were level at the break in 45% of their away matches, while in their last five games they were leading after 45 minutes in as many as 80% of cases. Portland have the stronger argument after the break, averaging 1.09 goals in the second half, while the visitors concede 1.18 goals during that period. In their last five matches, the hosts won the second half in 60% of cases, whereas St. Louis have not won any second half and averaged just 0.8 goals scored in those periods. Portland’s advantage across the season, including a 55% win rate compared with the visitors’ 27%, supports the scenario of a draw turning in the hosts’ favor after half-time.