Potenza Calcio vs Monopoli: match statistics

Potenza Calcio have won both of their league matches so far, recording a 100% win rate at home and averaging as many as 4 goals per game. The hosts create plenty of chances, averaging 19 shots, including 11 on target, with an xG of 2.24. Monopoli lost their only away match, failing to score despite 11 attempts and 3 shots on target, while their percentage of away matches without scoring stands at 100%. The visitors enjoy slightly higher possession, 55% compared with 50%, but their away xG of 1.46 has yet to translate into goals. Both teams have collected 7 points from their last five matches, equating to 1.4 points per game in terms of form, but Potenza’s clear edge in chance creation and home efficiency strongly favors the hosts.

Seasonal data from this matchup is a strong signal against BTTS: Potenza have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches, while Monopoli have failed to score in 100% of their away games. Both teams currently have a seasonal BTTS rate of 0%, with the hosts averaging 2.0 goals scored and the visitors conceding an average of 1.0, which favors a one-sided result. The last-five-match form is more open, as BTTS occurred in 60% of Potenza’s games and 40% of Monopoli’s, with both teams scoring 1.4 and 1.2 goals per match respectively. However, Potenza allowed opponents a high xG of 2.10 during this period, so a Monopoli goal remains a realistic possibility despite their poor away figures. The edge in more recent attacking form reduces confidence in the pick, but Monopoli’s away inefficiency and Potenza’s perfect defensive record in this matchup give a slight advantage to the scenario in which at least one team fails to score — BTTS - No.

A forecast of 2.48 goals points to a match with a realistic chance of 2–3 goals, but without strong grounds to expect four. In their last five matches, Potenza averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Monopoli recorded identical averages of 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. Potenza generated 1.41 xG during this period, compared with 1.33 xG for Monopoli, although the hosts allowed opponents as much as 2.10 xG per match, which increases the prospect of an away goal. At the same time, only 60% of Potenza’s last five matches and 40% of Monopoli’s fixtures went Over 2.5 goals, while both teams had 100% of their available seasonal results finish Under 3.5. Therefore, Under 3.5 is the strongest option, as even in an evenly matched attacking scenario, a fourth goal remains clearly less likely.

Potenza has a clearly superior profile in the season data: they have won 100% of their matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and none conceded, while Monopoli have lost 100% of their games, averaging 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The strongest signal concerns the first half: the home side were leading at the break in their only match so far, while the visitors were trailing at half-time in their sole appearance, with Potenza scoring 1.0 goal and Monopoli conceding 1.0 before the interval. The last five matches also support the hosts’ early advantage, as they have conceded an average of just 0.2 goals before half-time, compared with Monopoli’s 1.2. After the break, Potenza averaged 1.0 goal, while Monopoli failed to score in the second half in the season data, favouring the preservation of the lead. Although the visitors’ xG stands at 1.46 compared with 1.22 for the hosts, their lack of finishing efficiency and poor performances in the opening 45 minutes make a Potenza lead at half-time followed by a home win the most likely scenario: 1/1.