Pro Vercelli vs Folgore Caratese: match statistics

Folgore Caratese have clearly superior away attacking metrics: they average 2 goals from 14 shots per match, while Pro Vercelli record 1 goal and 11 attempts at home. The visitors also create higher-quality chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.75 compared with the hosts’ 1.46, while simultaneously limiting opponents to a lower xG: 1.29 versus 2.31. Pro Vercelli have conceded 8 goals and lost 3 times in their last five matches, whereas Folgore Caratese also have defensive issues, conceding 8 goals, but have drawn 3 of their last 5 games. Both teams drew their only previous respective home and away fixtures, making a draw a realistic scenario; however, the visitors’ superior conversion rate of 14% versus 9% slightly shifts the prediction in favor of Folgore Caratese.

The seasonal data for both teams strongly support goals at both ends: Pro Vercelli and Folgore Caratese have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. The hosts concede an average of 2.0 goals per match, while the visitors both score and concede 2.0 goals on average, creating a favorable matchup for both attacks. Over the last five matches, the BTTS rate has dropped to 60% for both teams, while the average number of goals scored is only 0.8, so this is not a risk-free pick. At the same time, both teams have conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match during this run, and their attacking xG figures stand at 1.59 and 1.56, suggesting more chances than the results alone indicate. Against the league-average BTTS rate of 45%, the defensive struggles of both teams give the scenario in which each side scores at least once the edge. This supports BTTS - Yes rather than BTTS - No: BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score, and does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The match profile points to at least two goals: both teams have so far consistently scored and conceded, with every one of their matches producing a minimum of 2 goals. Folgore Caratese create more chances than the hosts, with an average xG of 1.75 compared with Pro Vercelli’s 1.31, while the hosts allow opponents an xG of 1.63. In their last five matches, both teams conceded an average of 1.6 goals, while games featuring at least three goals accounted for 60% of their respective fixtures. Caution around the 2.5 line is warranted by their recent finishing, as each team scored only 0.8 goals per match during this period. However, the Over 1.5 line offers a clearer edge, combining strong goal indicators for both sides with a projection of 2.80 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as Pro Vercelli drew at half-time in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Folgore Caratese. The hosts averaged 0.0 goals before the break, while the visitors averaged just 0.2, and they kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80% and 60% of those matches, respectively. Folgore have slightly stronger attacking metrics over the season as a whole—an xG of 1.75 compared with 1.31, and 14 shots per match compared with 9—but both teams have scored only 0.8 goals per game across their last five outings. The visitors have drawn three of their last five matches, while their average of 1.6 goals conceded is identical to the hosts’ figure, limiting the basis for clearly selecting a winner. Matches involving both sides become more open after the break, but the second-half record over their last five games stands at 0 for each team, so a share of the points remains the most likely outcome.