Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado: match statistics

Deportivo Maldonado is the clear favorite: they sit 1st in the table with 12 wins and 36 goals this season, while Progreso are 8th with 3 wins and 16 goals. The difference over the last five matches is pronounced — the visitors have scored 12 goals and average 2.2 points per game in their last 5, while the hosts have only 4 goals and 0.6 points per game. In chance creation and efficiency Maldonado also holds the edge: on average 4.1 shots on target and 16% conversion per away match versus 2.9 shots on target and 10% conversion for Progreso, which translates to Progreso failing to score in 50% of home games while Maldonado failed to score in only 10% of away games. Defensively the hosts fare worse — Progreso concedes 1.8 goals per home game with an average xG against of 1.46, whereas Maldonado concedes 1.3 goals away with xG against of 1.32 and has 30% clean sheets away versus 0% for the hosts. Considering league position, goal advantage (36 vs 16), better conversion (16% vs 10%) and points form (2.2 vs 0.6 pts per game in the last 5), I predict a win for the visitors.

Both teams display high seasonal BTTS rates: Progreso 60% and Deportivo Maldonado 70%, with last 5 matches at 60% and 80%, strongly indicating goals from both sides. Deportivo in the last 5 matches averages 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Progreso in the last 5 averages 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded, meaning the visitors are efficient and the hosts have recently been vulnerable to conceding. Seasonal averages are 2.0 goals for Progreso at home and 1.6 for Deportivo away, and clean sheet percentages are 40% for Progreso and 30% for Deportivo — indicating both home and away teams frequently allow opponents to score. xG confirms an even attacking potential: Progreso offensive xG 1.53 versus 1.23 allowed, and Deportivo offensive xG 1.33 versus 1.32 allowed; additionally average shots are 12.9 vs 10.3 with 4.8 vs 4.1 on target. Considering seasonal and recent indicators (BTTS 60%/70% and 60%/80%), the visitors’ superior scoring form, and xG and shot statistics, the most reliable tip is BTTS - Yes with an 80% probability.

Both teams have a high share of matches over 1.5 goals: Progreso 80% and Deportivo Maldonado 80% this season, providing a strong baseline signal for Over 1.5. xG confirms this trend — Progreso has xG 1.53 per match, Deportivo 1.33; comparison with xG against (1.32 for the away side and 1.23 for the home side) yields a forecast of 1.43 goals for Progreso and 1.28 for Deportivo, totaling 2.71 goals. Additionally, Deportivo scored 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per game), while Progreso, despite a seasonal average of 2.0 goals, has only 0.8 in the last 5; combined with the home side’s average goals conceded of 1.8 in the last 5 this increases the probability of at least two strikes. Seasonal over2.5 rates are 60% for Progreso and 50% for Deportivo, and BTTS occurs in 60% and 70% of matches respectively, therefore Over 2.5 is rated here at around 58%, but the strongest and most reliable signal remains Over 1.5. I therefore recommend an Over on the 1.5 line as the safest choice, with an 85% forecast for Over 1.5 and projected goals 1.43 vs 1.28 (sum 2.71).

Season-long statistics favor Progreso — at home they score an average of 2.0 goals per match and have an 80% win rate, with xG of 1.53 versus Deportivo’s 1.33; visitors concede 1.3 goals on average, which gives the hosts an advantage. At Half-Time Progreso led in 50% of home matches and scores on average 1.1 goals by the 45th minute, while Deportivo score 0.9 goals by half-time away, so there is a slightly higher probability of the hosts holding a lead at the break. However, the last 5 matches show the opposite dynamic: Progreso have only a 20% win rate in the last 5 (form llwll), while Deportivo are at 60% (wdwwd) and the visitors led at the break in 60% of those five games, which increases the risk of a draw or a turnaround. Considering the superior season xG (1.53 vs 1.33), higher average shots on target (4.8 vs 4.1) and the high share of home leads at Half-Time (50%), the most confident signal is 1/1 — I rate it at 30%. As realistic alternatives I predict draw at Half-Time with a later home win (x/1 20%), draw/draw (x/x 12%) and combinations with the visitors leading at the break due to Maldonado’s away form (e.g. 2/2 7%), and I also expect both teams to score in 60–70% of cases.