Progreso vs Nacional: match statistics
Nacional decidedly outperforms Progreso in every statistical aspect. The hosts have not won any match this season, have not scored a goal in home matches, and have lost 100% of their home games, conceding an average of 3 goals per match. Nacional, on the other hand, wins 100% of away matches, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding only 1 goal per game. The form of both teams is drastically different – Progreso averages only 0.2 points per match in the last 5 games, while Nacional averages 1.8 points. Additionally, Nacional surpasses the rival in key offensive parameters: averaging 6 shots on target per away match with an 18% conversion rate, while Progreso has only 2 shots on target and a 0% conversion rate. All indicators point to a certain victory for the visitors.
Progreso vs Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Progreso play Nacional in Primera División (Uruguay). The match date is 22 February 2026 at 00:30. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Progreso: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Nacional: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Progreso scores 0.81 and concedes 1.52 goals per match. Nacional scores 1.52 and concedes 1.33. League average: 2.41 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Progreso 43%, Nacional 57%. Over 2.5: Progreso 43%, Nacional 67%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Nacional has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.16. Progreso: 8.5 shots per match, Nacional: 11.9.
Match halves
Progreso: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.43. Nacional: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.86.
Goals by minute
Progreso: 76-90+ (6 goals). Nacional: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.41 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
3 H2H matches: 0-0-3. Average goals 3.67, BTTS 67%.
Match description
Nacional decidedly outperforms Progreso in every statistical aspect. The hosts have not won any match this season, have not scored a goal in home matches, and have lost 100% of their home games, conceding an average of 3 goals per match. Nacional, on the other hand, wins 100% of away matches, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding only 1 goal per game. The form of both teams is drastically different – Progreso averages only 0.2 points per match in the last 5 games, while Nacional averages 1.8 points. Additionally, Nacional surpasses the rival in key offensive parameters: averaging 6 shots on target per away match with an 18% conversion rate, while Progreso has only 2 shots on target and a 0% conversion rate. All indicators point to a certain victory for the visitors.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Progreso | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nacional is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Progreso · 1.4 pts / match - Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nacional is 88% better for: goals scored per match.
0.81 goals / match - Progreso · 1.52 goals / match - Nacional
Nacional is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.52 goals / match - Progreso · 1.33 goals / match - Nacional
Progreso scores in 52% of matches (11 of 21 matches), while Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
Nacional scores in 81% of matches (17 of 21 matches), while Progreso keeps a clean sheet in 10% (2 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Progreso
Over / Under — Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nacional is 63% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.76 pts / match - Progreso · 1.24 pts / match - Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Progreso - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 19%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Progreso
Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Progreso | Liga | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.33 | 2.41 | ▲ 2.86 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 52% | ▲ 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 46% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 10% | 27% | ▲ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 69% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 73% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Progreso 0 - 0 - 3 Nacional. Average goals 3.67, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Progreso vs Nacional?
The Primera División match finished Progreso 0:1 Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Progreso and Nacional?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Progreso won 0, Nacional won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Progreso vs Nacional?
Progreso score 0.81 goals per game on average and Nacional 1.52. The Primera División average is 2.41 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Progreso's matches and 57% of Nacional's.
What form are Progreso and Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games Progreso have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Nacional 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Progreso vs Nacional?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Progreso vs Nacional: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.