PSM vs Persis Solo: match statistics

Persis Solo appears to be the favorite despite being 15th in the table, as they are on a 5-match unbeaten run (2 wins, 3 draws) and average 1.8 points over the last five matches, while PSM collected only 0.2 points in the same period (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). Goal stats from the last 5 matches confirm the visitors' advantage: Persis scored 8 and conceded 4, whereas PSM scored 6 and conceded as many as 12. Seasonal home/away numbers, however, show that PSM creates slightly better chances — at home they average 11.67 shots (3.58 on target), 1.08 goals scored and xG 1.33, while Persis away averages 8.67 shots (3.08 on target), 0.83 goals scored and xG 1.11. Defensively, season data also slightly favor the hosts (PSM concedes 1.17 goals at home versus 1.58 conceded by Persis away, clean sheets 33% vs 25%), but the combination of Persis’s better form and PSM’s significantly worse run in the last 5 matches leans the probabilities toward the visitors. Based on this, I tip Persis Solo to win; I assess the probabilities roughly as 20% for the home side, 30% for a draw and 50% for the visitors.

PSM has a seasonal BTTS rate of 69% versus Persis 50%, and the league average is 55% BTTS — a strong initial signal for BTTS - Yes. In the last 5 matches both teams also have BTTS at 60%, and Persis have scored an average 1.6 goals (8 goals in 5 matches) while PSM have conceded an average 2.4 goals (12 conceded), increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Seasonal averages show PSM scoring 1.38 and conceding 1.92, and Persis scoring 0.83 and conceding 1.58, so both teams simultaneously create and allow chances. xG confirms this: PSM has xG 1.49 versus Persis 1.11, with xG against 1.67 (PSM) and 1.70 (Persis), and PSM averages 4.62 shots on target versus Persis 3.08, indicating concrete scoring opportunities for both sides. Although Persis has seasonal matches without scoring at 50%, their form (8 goals in the last 5) and PSM’s low clean sheet percentage (8%) make the BTTS scenario more likely.

I estimate the home side will score about 1.60 goals and Persis Solo about 1.39, yielding a combined expected 2.99 goals for the match. Seasonally PSM averages 1.38 goals per game, Persis 0.83, with PSM having 85% of matches over 1.5 goals and Persis 67%, which strongly supports at least two goals in the game. Home xG is 1.49 versus 1.11 for the visitors, and average shots 12.0 vs 8.67 with shots on target 4.62 vs 3.08 indicate a superiority in chances for the hosts and realistic scoring opportunities. Additionally, both teams scored in 69% of PSM’s matches and 50% of Persis’s matches, and in the last 5 meetings both sides produced Over2.5 in 60% of cases, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; Over 2.5 is also likely (~70%), while Over 3.5 has a lower probability (~36%).

I forecast a Half-Time draw with Persis winning Full-Time (X/2) and assign this scenario a 34% probability. Persis has a 40% win rate in their last five matches and averages 1.6 goals scored in those games, whereas PSM has a 0% win rate in their last five and concedes an average of 2.4 goals per match. Both teams score little by half-time: PSM averages 0.54 HT goals and Persis 0.42, but PSM’s home matches have a 92% chance of at least one goal by the break, so a scoring draw at half-time (e.g., 1:1) is likely. Although PSM generates higher xG (1.49 vs. 1.11), they concede 1.92 goals per match on average and have only 8% clean sheets this season versus Persis’s 25%, which gives the visitors a defensive advantage in the second half. Therefore, besides X/2 (34%) I consider X/X at 16% and 2/2 at 14% realistic alternatives, while a PSM lead at half-time and holding that lead to full-time is assessed as unlikely (~4%).