PSV vs Willem II: match statistics

PSV are clear favorites: they have won 3 of their last 5 home matches and have not lost any, while Willem II have suffered 4 defeats in their last 5 away games. The hosts average 2.8 goals per match at home, with an xG of 2.47, while the visitors concede 3.2 goals away from home, against opponents’ xG of 2.71. PSV’s advantage in creating chances is also reflected in their average of 7.2 shots on target at home, compared with Willem II’s 2.6 away. PSV have scored 5 goals and won twice in their last 5 league matches, so their current scoring rate is below their home average. However, Willem II have lost all 5 of their matches and conceded as many as 18 goals. The visitors average 1.2 goals away from home, so they could pose a threat to PSV’s goal, but the gulf in chance quality and defensive strength points to a home win.

The case for BTTS - Yes is based primarily on Willem II scoring in every away match, while PSV have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their home games. The visitors have also failed to keep a clean sheet away from home, conceding an average of 3.2 goals, so PSV should have chances to score despite averaging just 0.8 goals at home. In their last five matches, Willem II conceded an average of as many as 3.6 goals, while both teams scored 1.0 goal per match over that period. The risk to this pick is that PSV failed to score in 40% of their home games, and Willem II have lost their last five matches. Even so, the rates of matches in which both teams scored — 60% for PSV and 100% for Willem II — suggest that a goal from each side is the more likely outcome.

At least 2 goals were scored in 80% of PSV’s matches and 100% of Willem II’s, making Over 1.5 the line most strongly supported by the data. Willem II concede an average of 3.2 goals per match and have shipped 18 goals in their last 5 games, increasing the likelihood of a high-scoring performance from the hosts. The visitors could also get on the scoresheet: they have scored in every match included in the statistics, although their average xG is 1.04 compared with PSV’s 1.32. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of both teams’ matches, but in only 20% of PSV’s recent games, so Over 1.5 offers a clearer edge than the higher lines.

PSV did not score before half-time in any of the 5 analyzed home matches, while Willem II were level at the break in 3 of their 5 away games, pointing to an initial draw. However, the hosts led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches overall, making the 1/1 outcome almost equally likely. PSV’s form supports a full-time win: they collected 7 points from their last 5 matches, while Willem II lost all 5 and conceded an average of 3.6 goals per game. The visitors also conceded an average of 2.4 goals after half-time over this period, and their average xG conceded per match is 2.71 compared with PSV’s 1.93, increasing the hosts’ chances of settling the match in the second half.