Pumas UNAM vs Mazatlán: match statistics

Pumas UNAM are the clear favorites in this matchup: at home they average 1.53 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game, while Mazatlán average only 0.73 goals scored and 1.73 conceded on the road. The hosts generate more high-quality chances — Pumas’ average xG is 1.36 versus 1.05 for Mazatlán — and they also attempt more shots (12.4 vs 9.27) with higher conversion efficiency (12% vs 8%). Control of play and defensive stability also favor Pumas: possession 54% vs 43%, share of matches without scoring 13% vs 47%, and 33% clean sheets for the hosts vs 7% for the visitors. In form trends Pumas have accumulated 1.6 pts in the last 5 matches (record 2-2-1), while Mazatlán have 0.8 pts with a 1-1-3 record and have conceded 11 goals in their last five games, indicating defensive issues. Therefore I predict a home win; probabilities estimated at ~65% for Pumas, 20% for a draw and 15% for Mazatlán.

The “Both Teams To Score” scenario is more likely because Pumas has a season BTTS rate of 93% versus Mazatlán’s 53%, with a league average of 57%. In the last 5 matches Pumas had BTTS in 60% and Mazatlán in 80%, and they scored 8 and 7 goals respectively in those five fixtures (averages 1.6 and 1.4), indicating both sides’ scoring form. Both teams are vulnerable to conceding: Pumas has conceded 42 goals this season (1.87 avg) and 1.4 in the last 5, Mazatlán conceded 54 this season (1.73 avg) and 2.2 in the last 5, which increases the likelihood of goals for both sides. xG and shot statistics also support attacking potential and defensive frailties: xG-for 1.2 (Pumas) vs 1.05 (Mazatlán), xG-against 1.86 vs 1.81, and average shots per match 10.47 vs 9.27 with shots on target 3.73 vs 3.33. Considering Pumas’ extremely high season BTTS (93%), low clean sheet rates of 7% for both teams, and the evident goal tempo in the last 5 matches, I assign a 75% probability to BTTS - Yes and 25% to BTTS - No.

Pumas average 1.6 goals per home game with xG 1.20 and concede 1.87 on average (xG conceded 1.86). Mazatlán averages 0.73 goals away with xG 1.05 and concedes 1.73 (xG conceded 1.81). Averaging xG from both sides yields an estimated ≈1.50 for the home team ((1.20+1.81)/2) and ≈1.46 for the away team ((1.05+1.86)/2), i.e. roughly 2.96 expected goals total. Season metrics show Pumas has Over1.5 in 93% of home matches and Over2.5 in 73%, while Mazatlán has Over1.5 in 67% of away games and Over2.5 in 47%, which generates a strong signal for overs. Pumas convert shots to goals at 15% with 10.47 shots per game vs Mazatlán’s 8% conversion on 9.27 shots, and BTTS rates are 93% (Pumas) and 53% (Mazatlán), further increasing the likelihood of multiple goals. Based on the above, the model estimates ≈80% for Over1.5, ≈57% for Over2.5 and ≈34% for Over3.5; the strongest signal is over 1.5, therefore I recommend staking the over at the 1.5 line.

The hosts have a clear lead at the break: they average 0.8 goals by halftime versus 0.2 for Mazatlán, and they lead at the break in 40% of matches while Mazatlán do not lead at halftime in away matches (0%). However, Pumas tend to concede late — as many as 10 goals conceded in minutes 76–90 this season — which increases the risk of surrendering a lead after the break. Over 90 minutes the hosts’ xG is 1.20 versus 1.05 for the visitors, and Mazatlán concede an average of 1.73 goals per game, while Pumas have 93% of matches with both teams scoring compared to 53% for Mazatlán, suggesting a high likelihood of a scoring draw. On this basis the most probable scenario is the hosts leading at halftime and the match finishing level after 90 minutes — I back 1/X (32%), with a strong alternative being the hosts leading at halftime and winning 1/1 (28%). I assign lower probability to scenarios with the visitors leading at halftime (all variants starting with '2/') totaling 5%, consistent with Mazatlán’s low away win rate (7%).